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Mumbai, Maharashtra, India
Besides being a CHARTERED ACCOUNTANT from Institute of Chartered Accountants of India,SAP certified consultant(FICO) and A Director in an advertising Company,I am a BSE certified stock analyst(technical) and I trade regularly on Bombay stock exchange.Do you like to have some free reliable stock trading tips ??? Visit my blog daily and follow my research.

FANS

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THIS BLOG IS A FRIENDLY EFFORT TO ENABLE USERS TO MAKE PROFIT BY PUTTING MY KNOWLEDGE TO THEIR USE. STOCK PICKS GIVEN HERE ARE FOR TRADING, THEY ARE REAL TIME AND MOMENTUM STOCKS I.E. THEY WILL RISE / FALL VERY FAST GIVING QUICK PROFITS. USERS SHOULD MAKE THEIR TRADING STRATEGY AND ENTER THE STOCK IMMEDIATELY AND EXIT AS PER THEIR PRUDENCE WHEN TRADE FETCHES 15-20% RETURN.

Before using the blog,I advise viewers to read my very first few posts which I wrote when I started this blog.

Thursday, April 30, 2009

Kochhar, as ICICI's New Chief, to Buck Central Bank Demand for Loan Growth

April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Chanda Kochhar, ICICI Bank Ltd.'s new chief executive officer, said India's second-largest lender plans to curb new loans to preserve capital, bucking the central bank's call for credit growth to revive the economy.

"In the coming year, the growth rate for us would be pretty moderate" on loans, Kochhar, who takes the helm at the Mumbai-based lender tomorrow, said in an interview in her office. "In times like these, you have to conserve capital, you have to maintain liquidity and you have to contain risk."

Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao told banks to increase lending by at least 20 percent to drive an economy growing at the slowest pace in six years. Kochhar, 47, takes the top post at ICICI following a year in which the bank's advances dropped 3 percent, compared with a 17.5 percent gain in India's total bank credit, and the stock posted its worst year on record.

The slump in loans may make it harder for ICICI to revive earnings after posting the steepest fall in quarterly profit in more than six years for the three months ended March 31. The bank set aside more funds for bad debt and curbed loans and overseas operations to avoid defaults during the quarter.

"The bank remains in a transition phase and further restructuring/downsizing is expected to impair medium-term profit outlook," Prabodh Agrawal, an analyst at IIFL Research in Mumbai, said in a note on April 27.

Agrawal forecasts ICICI's loans are likely to drop by 5 percent to 10 percent in the year that started April 1, and net income will decline 17 percent. He recommends clients reduce their holdings in the bank.

Changing Deposit Mix

"What we are concentrating on is to change our deposit mix" to reduce the cost of funds, said Kochhar, currently chief financial officer of the bank. "In a volatile scenario like this, its important that we reduce the reliance on bulk and wholesale deposits and increase our proportion of current and savings accounts."

The bank aims to increase current and savings account deposits as a proportion of total funds to 33 percent, from 28.7 percent as of March 31, said Kochhar. That increase will take at least a year for the bank, which plans to add 580 branches to extend its network to about 2,000, to accomplish, she estimated.

First Bank Employee

Kochhar, a 25-year veteran, became the bank's first employee when the parent company decided to set up a lender in 1993. She built up ICICI's retail lending operations, where loans climbed 20-fold under her leadership, ICICI has said. She was appointed to the board in 2001.

India's central bank has cut its key rate by 425 basis points since October to the lowest on record to encourage banks to lend. Subbarao on April 21 forecast that India's economy will grow 6 percent in the year that started April 1, the slowest pace since 2003.

"There is an urgent need to boost the flow of credit to all productive sectors of economy," Subbarao said in the central bank's annual monetary policy report.

ICICI, whose stakeholders include Temasek Holdings Pte and the Singapore government, aims to instead tighten norms for credit cards and most unsecured personal loans, and use deposits to pay down debt, Kochhar said. The bank has subsidiaries in the U.K. and Canada, through which it mainly offers overseas loans to Indian companies.

Run on the Bank

ICICI's deposits shrank 11 percent in the 12 months to March 31 after it racked up the biggest losses among Indian lenders tied to the global financial crisis, leading to a brief run on the bank in September and more withdrawals as depositors grew concerned about its financial strength and shifted to state-run lenders.

Shares of the lender rose 9.1 percent to 479.2 rupees in Mumbai trading yesterday. The stock has gained 7 percent this year, compared with a 18 percent climb in India's benchmark Sensitive Index.

Kochhar will become India's most powerful businesswoman when she replaces K.V. Kamath, who headed the bank for 14 years.

Temasek Holdings, through Allamanda Investments Pvt., owns 7.6 percent of ICICI, and the Government of Singapore Investment Corp. holds 2.3 percent by March 31, according to regulatory filings. The government-controlled Life Insurance Corp. of India owns 9.4 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: M.C. Govardhana Rangan in Mumbai at grangan@bloomberg.net Chitra Somayaji in Mumbai at csomayaji@bloomberg.net





Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Sensex Rises to Six-Month High on India Economic Outlook; State Bank Gains


      April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks rose, lifting the benchmark index to a six-month high, led by banks and energy producers on expectation a bigger crop harvest this year helped by early rainfall will boost economic growth.

State Bank of India, the nation's biggest lender, climbed 3.5 percent and ICICI Bank Ltd., the second-largest, jumped 9.1 percent. Reliance Industries Ltd., the country's biggest company by market value, added 4 percent after signing accords on natural gas sales with nine power companies.

"Domestic consumption in India will continue to be good with normal and early rains," said U.P. Bhat, who helps manage about $1.5 billion at Canara Robeco Asset Management Ltd. in Mumbai. "Overall, the sentiment for the economy is good."

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, gained 3.7 percent to 11,403.25 at the 3:30 p.m. close of trading, the highest since Oct. 14. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 3.3 percent to 3,473.95. The BSE 200 Index added 3.2 percent to 1,339.38. Nifty futures for April delivery climbed 3.6 percent to 3,473.90.

Reliance will sell about 11 million cubic meters a day of gas to 11 plants belonging to the nine companies, Reliance said yesterday. The stock added 4 percent to 1,806.25 rupees, the most in four weeks.

ICICI, State Bank

India designated fuel-starved power producers and fertilizer makers as priority customers for the gas to be produced from Reliance's Krishna-Godavari field, which is expected to more than double the country's output of the fuel.

State Bank of India climbed 3.5 percent to 1,278.6 rupees while ICICI Bank surged 9.1 percent to 479.2 rupees. HDFC Bank Ltd. added 2.7 percent to 1,100.35 rupees. Housing Development Finance Corp., the nation's biggest home mortgage lender, gained 3.7 percent to 1,726.95 rupees.

The monsoon may arrive a week ahead of its normal June 1 date, D. Sivananda Pai, a director at India Meteorological Department, said yesterday on a conference call organized by brokerage Edelweiss Securities Ltd. That will boost prospects for an early planting of crops such as rice, oilseeds and cotton. About 235 million farmers rely on the timing of the four-month rainy season to decide which crops to grow.

Adequate rainfall will help sustain the record 4.3 percent average growth in farm output that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has presided over since 2005, raising incomes among the 742 million Indians who live in the countryside and help counter the slowest growth since March 2003.

Overseas investors bought a net 18.4 billion rupees ($368 million) of Indian stocks April 27, bringing their total equity purchases this year to $92.3 billion, according to the nation's market regulator.

The following shares were among the most active on the exchange:

Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. (STLT IN) gained 7.1 percent to 410.05 rupees, the most since March 13. The country's biggest copper and zinc producer said net profit fell 55 percent to 5.98 billion rupees. The profit exceeded the 4.5 billion rupee median estimate of seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Suzlon Energy Ltd. (SUEL IN), the nation's biggest maker of wind-turbine generators, rose 5.8 percent to 63.6 rupees. The company's bondholders are meeting in London to discuss a plan to reduce liabilities by changing the terms of its $500 million debt.

Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd. (BRCM IN) gained 7.8 percent to 69.85 rupees, the most since April 13, after the government said it will permit sugar importers to freely sell the commodity in the local market and won't direct them to divest part of it to the government.

Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCOM IN) added 3.5 percent to 214.8 rupees after India's second-largest mobile-phone operator said it will buy back $24.7 million of outstanding notes from its $1 billion in zero coupon convertible bonds due 2012. Reliance will pay 85 cents on the dollar for the notes after a tender offer to investors, it said in a statement to the Singapore stock exchange today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gaurav Singh in New Delhi at gsingh31@bloomberg.net .



India's Key Stock Index May Decline 16% by End-2009, Morgan Stanley Says



April 29 (Bloomberg) -- India's key stock index, the second-best performer in Asia this month, may drop 16 percent by the end of the year on concern elections will fail to bring in a government that can tackle slowing economic growth, Morgan Stanley said.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index may fall to 9,224 by December, down from yesterday's close of 11,001.75, analysts Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi wrote in a report today. The forecast is 2 percent lower than an earlier target, the analysts also said, citing its "base case" analysis.

The Sensex has rallied 13 percent this month, lagging behind only Vietnam's VN Index in the region, as Indians began electing on April 16 a new government that will have to revive an economy growing at its slowest pace in six years. The index has climbed 14 percent in 2009, after tumbling a record 52 percent in the previous year.

"For India to outperform emerging markets, a relatively polarized election outcome is important," the analysts wrote. "Based on our probability-weighted scenarios, the market seems to bear downside risk from current levels in 2009."

Votes in the current elections will be counted on May 16, with opinion polls showing neither the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance nor the main opposition, led by the Hindu- nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, winning a clear majority.

Credit Suisse Group on April 27 advised investors to reduce their holdings of Indian stocks on concern the ongoing polls may prove a "sharp disappointment."

The Reserve Bank of India on April 21 lowered interest rates for the sixth time in as many months, saying that the economy will expand at the slowest pace since 2003. Gross domestic product may ease to 6 percent in the year that started April 1 from 7.1 percent in the previous 12 months, the central bank also said.

'Pre-election Rally'

"It is important that the new government performs a tough balancing act of stimulating the economy as well as curtailing the burgeoning fiscal deficit," the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. "The market seems to be in its pre-election rally, which normally causes it to sell off post elections."

Earnings in India may drop 20 percent in the current year, with return on equity declining to 15 percent in the next 12 months to 18 months from its peak of 22 percent, the brokerage predicted.

"Bear markets do not end while earnings are falling," the analysts wrote. "Tactically we would sell the rallies rather than buy the dips."

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net .



Monday, April 27, 2009

Sell Indian Stocks Ahead of National Election Results, Credit Suisse Says



April 27 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should lower their holdings of Indian stocks on concern the nation's ongoing elections may prove a "sharp disappointment," Credit Suisse Group said.

Shares appear to have priced in a victory for a "market- friendly, stable government" without factoring the possibility of other outcomes, the brokerage said. Regional investors should instead buy other so-called high beta markets and local shareholders should reduce their holdings of more volatile stocks such as Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., they added.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has gained 39 percent since sliding to 2009 low on March 9, making India one of the 10 best-performing stock markets among the 84 tracked by Bloomberg in that period. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index rallied 26 percent since that date while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed 32 percent.

"Election uncertainties are now badly mispriced," Credit Suisse analysts Nilesh Jasani and Arya Sen wrote in a report today. "Chances of a market-friendly government have not improved in the last few weeks. As a result, the near surety of such an outcome in the stock market has opened the doors for a sharp disappointment."

Indians began electing on April 16 a new government that will have to revive an economy growing at its slowest pace in six years. Votes will be counted on May 16, with opinion polls showing neither the Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance nor the main opposition, led by the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party, winning a clear majority.

Economy's Prospects

Gains in Indian stocks over the past two months also suggest that investors are overly "positive" on the prospects for India's economy, the Credit Suisse analysts said. The Reserve Bank of India said on April 21 the economy may expand 6 percent in the fiscal year that started April 1, the slowest pace since 2003.

Even if the election results disappoint investors, signs of improved funding may boost growth at Indian companies, helping extend gains in share prices, Credit Suisse said. Unitech Ltd., the nation's No. 2 developer, was among companies that sold shares this year to raise funds.

"If the capital market-based funding continues to be strong and somehow $5 billion to $10 billion worth of funding gets done in the next three months, corporate India could be back on a strong growth path," the analysts wrote.

Credit Suisse didn't specify which "high beta" markets investors should buy at the expense of Indian equities.

Bharat Heavy, the nation's biggest power equipment maker, has gained 21 percent this year, while Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's largest aluminum producer, has climbed 11 percent. Credit Suisse lowered its rating on Bharat Heavy to "neutral" from "outperform" and downgraded Hindalco to "underperform" from "neutral" this month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net .





Friday, April 24, 2009

Good night

Hi friends,

You must have noticed that our market rose unexpectedly very high
yesterday and today too , as if it has decoupled from the global
market and as if , it has discounted all the news to come. This
behaviour may continue till Wednesday , being the day when April
series ends or till the elections are over.

During the times of uncertainities or may be in all the times, as a
trader to be profitable , one must work with a very strict discipline.
One must predetermine stop loss or the kind of profit one wants to
make and must remain determinant and stay away from sentiments or
emotions. One must book profit , if arising 15-20% in a trade and
enter new trade .

Normally, if we buy shares, and if it's price is rising, even if we
achieve our target , we don't book profits but raise our target too
and wait for prices to rise and in that event ultimately we not only
lose some of the profits but make losses in some cases. The same is
the case with stop losses. We don't book the loss when the stop loss
triggers but wait for the price to come near to our cost price!! And
result , you know.

Hence, it is my request dear friends, to keep on booking profits and
trade with discipline. You will earn small but losses will also be the
small and net earnings will be high.

I ask for your leave of absence as I will not be meeting you till 4th
May, Monday. I know these are the crucial days where you will need
some help cruising the market but sometimes one needs to be
independant ,too. I will keep posting the news for you.

Goodnight and wish you a very happy week end.

Jagruti.

BNP Paribas Sees Profit for Indian Geojit Brokerage, May Increase Stake

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- BNP Paribas SA, France's largest bank, said its retail brokerage unit in India will make money in 2009 and the bank may consider increasing its stake to more than 50 percent as early as next year.

"We'll be profitable in 2009," said Olivier Le Grand, head of BNP Paribas Personal Investors, referring to Indian broker Geojit BNP Paribas. Geojit is "prudent" on the outlook for this year and will open branches at a slower pace than the 50 annual starts since 2007, Le Grand said in a phone interview.

Indian stocks, laggards among the world's biggest emerging- market in the first quarter, rebounded in April as investors snapped up the cheapest shares in 13 years. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index fell to its lowest level in more than three years on March 9.

Paris-based BNP Paribas, which owns about 34 percent of Geojit, aims to increase its stake as early as 2010 and may consider becoming the majority shareholder, Le Grand said. The French bank spent 35 million euros ($46 million) in 2007 to buy a 27 percent stake in Geojit Financial Services Ltd. to gain clients in the world's second-most populous country.

Geojit, based in Kochi, southern India, changed its name and rebranded its 500 branches as Geojit BNP Paribas, the company said yesterday.

The firm broke even in the fiscal year through March as it invested to open branches and started a venture with BNP Paribas' investment-banking arm to provide brokerage services to institutional investors in India, Le Grand said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fabio Benedetti-Valentini in Paris at fabiobv@bloomberg.net .





Sensex Index Reaches Six-Month High on BNP Paribas Estimate; ICICI Gains

April 24 (Bloomberg) -- India's benchmark stock index rose for a second day, climbing to a six-month high, after BNP Paribas said the gauge may rise another 10 percent because of a better outlook for corporate earnings.

ICICI Bank Ltd., Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. and Tata Power Ltd., were among BNP's top picks that rose more than 2 percent.

"There is an improvement in fundamentals, in terms of growth in some sectors, companies' ability to raise finances to tide over balance-sheet problems, and confidence about future growth," BNP's analyst Manishi Raychaudhuri wrote.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 1.7 percent to 11,329.05. The gauge posted its seventh week of gains advancing to its highest since Oct. 14. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange added 1.7 percent to 3,480.75. The BSE 200 Index climbed 1.8 percent to 1,344.16. Nifty futures for April delivery added 1.4 percent to 3474.50.

The Sensex may climb to 12,300 by the end of the year, higher than an earlier forecast range of 10,000 to 11,500, Raychaudhuri said.

Indian and Chinese stocks were driven down too far in the meltdown that started last year, said Jon Thorn, manager of the India Capital Fund.

"India and China got marked down more out of fear and panic rather than for a fundamental reason," Thorn said. "Indian large caps will outperform smaller companies as the constraints on capital and cost of capital will benefit larger companies over their smaller rivals."

Indian banks are among the cheapest in the world, said Thorn, whose picks include State Bank of India, ICICI Bank and Punjab National Bank.

ICICI, Tata

ICICI, the nation's No. 2 lender, rose 2.3 percent to 434.10 rupees. Mahindra, the country's largest maker of sport- utility vehicles, added 6.1 percent to 471.30 rupees. Tata Power, India's biggest electricity generator outside state control, gained 3.8 percent to 887.65 rupees.

BNP's other picks include Axis Bank Ltd., which rose 5.5 percent to 529.60 rupees, and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., which gained 1.4 percent to 1,643.40 rupees.

Overseas investors bought a net 18 million rupees ($360,000) of Indian stocks on April 22, according to the regulator.

The following shares were among the most active on the exchange:

GlaxoSmithKline Consumer Healthcare Ltd. (SKB IN) rose 6.2 percent to 785.75 rupees. The Indian maker of Horlicks and Boost health drinks said first-quarter profit rose 48 percent to 838.90 million rupees.

HDFC Bank Ltd. (HDFCB IN) added 1.6 percent to 1,110.25 rupees. India's second-biggest lender by market value reported fourth-quarter profit rose 34 percent to 6.31 billion rupees. That beat the 5.9 billion rupees median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

IDBI Bank Ltd. (IDBI IN) jumped 13 percent to 67.30 rupees, the most since Oct. 13. The Indian lender said profit in the fourth quarter rose 28 percent to 3.14 billion rupees.

Piramal Healthcare Ltd. (PIHC IN) gained 4 percent to 215.95 rupees. The Indian generic drugmaker said fourth-quarter profit rose 59 percent to 1.15 billion rupees. Sales climbed 9.3 percent to 8.51 billion rupees.

Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd. (RBXY IN) slid 2.2 percent to 175.90 rupees. India's biggest drugmaker, controlled by Daiichi Sankyo Co. of Japan, may report a loss of 180 million rupees in the quarter ended March 31, according to the median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net





Maruti Suzuki Profit Falls 18%, Lagging Behind Estimates, on Forex Losses


April 24 (Bloomberg) -- Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., maker of half the cars sold in the country, unexpectedly reported a drop in fourth-quarter net income after currency-hedging losses masked gains from record automobile sales.

Profit in the three months ended March slumped 18 percent from a year earlier to 2.43 billion rupees ($49 million), the Indian unit of Japan's Suzuki Motor Corp. said in a statement today. That lagged behind the median profit estimate of 3.78 billion rupees in a Bloomberg survey of 11 analysts.

Maruti incurred a foreign-exchange loss of 1.21 billion rupees in the quarter on wrong-way currency bets as the rupee fell to a record low against the dollar. Still, the company may be able to boost profit margins this year as the global recession cuts commodity prices and Suzuki boosts export of fuel-efficient hatchbacks from India, said Chetan Vora, an analyst at Brics Securities Ltd. in Mumbai.

"If you exclude the forex losses, the company has done a good job during the quarter," Vora said. "Going forward, I expect Maruti to improve its exports and profit margins."

The New Delhi-based carmaker bought currency contracts that allowed it to convert export earnings at rates between 41 rupees and 42 rupees to a dollar, said Ajay Seth, chief general manager in charge of finance. Instead, the rupee averaged 49.7963 against the dollar in the quarter, tumbling to a low of 51.9850. The company didn't disclose any hedging cover for its imports.

Shares Gain

"During the year, commodity prices went up sharply and remained high for most part of the year," the company said in the statement. "Forex fluctuations were also adverse and impacted the bottom line significantly."

Maruti gained 0.6 percent to 803 rupees at close of stock trading in Mumbai, after having tumbled as much as 4.4 percent earlier. It has gained 54 percent this year and is the third- best performer in the 30-share Sensex Index.

The carmaker boosted exports 67 percent to 25,153 units in the quarter on demand for its A-Star small car in Europe, where it's sold as the Suzuki Alto. Exports accounted for 11 percent of Maruti's total sales in the quarter, compared with 7.4 percent a year earlier, according to the statement. The carmaker expects to sell 30,000 units to Nissan Motor Co. this year.

A decline in commodity prices and increased localization, which will cut costlier imports, will enable the automaker to boost profit margins "significantly," Seth said in a phone interview. The company isn't expecting any foreign exchange loss this fiscal year, Seth said.

Capital Expenditure

Spending on steel, rubber and other raw materials, its biggest expenditure, rose 28 percent to 47.4 billion rupees.

Maruti, which will pay a final dividend of 3.5 rupees a share, plans 18 billion rupees in capital expenditure in the year ending March 31, Seth told analysts in a conference call.

Maruti's sales of Swift hatchbacks and SX4 sedans gained 17 percent to a quarterly record of 236,638 units as banks lowered lending rates and the government cut taxes on vehicle purchases to spur demand. Growth in India for Suzuki contrasts with plunging demand in Europe and Japan, where it's cutting output due to falling sales.

Japan's auto sales, excluding minicars, fell 32 percent to the lowest level in 35 years in March as economic recession, rising unemployment and falling wages hurt demand. In Europe, sales have slumped for 11 consecutive months through March, while U.S. sales dropped 37 percent last month.

"People are still considering new vehicles" in India, said Shashank Khade, who helps manage $300 million of assets at Kotak Securities Ltd. in Mumbai. "Liquidity conditions have eased, credit has started flowing back, and financing is not an issue anymore. We aren't facing a hemorrhage the way the world is facing in terms of credit."

To contact the reporter on this story: Vipin V. Nair in Mumbai at Vnair12@bloomberg.net .





Hdfc

Buy cmp1809 target 1999
Market is at very strong resistance level. Be careful entering new
positions. Book partial profits.

Rel ind infra

Buy cmp711 target900

Indianulls

Buy cmp 121 target 129, 139,151.

HDIL

Buy cmp 152 target 179

SBI

Buy cmp 1298 target 1350

Videocon industries

Buy cmp 119 target125,134

Buy

TCS
Adlabs

Buy

Opto circuit cmp116.50
Acc cmp 670

Market now

Market very volatile
Realty, infrastructure, auto rising.
Buy
M&M
DLF

Good morning

Hi frendz,

Global trends are mixed. Our market will remain independant of global
cues. Next week has only 3 working days and Wednesday is end of April
series. Market may remain in green today.

More on market opening,

Jagruti.

U.S. Stocks Advance on Better-Than-Estimated Earnings; Marriott, Ebay Gain

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, recouping yesterday's drop, as better-than-estimated earnings at companies from Marriott International Inc. to ConocoPhillips and EBay Inc. overshadowed falling home sales and higher jobless claims.

Marriott, the biggest U.S. hotel chain, surged 12 percent and helped drive Host Hotels & Resorts Inc., the largest lodging real-estate investment trust, to a 17 percent advance. EBay rallied 12 percent, while Apple Inc. and ConocoPhillips climbed more than 3 percent, after earnings topped analyst projections. NYSE Euronext jumped 14 percent on takeover speculation.

"Even companies that are just meeting expectations are holding up pretty well because many investors were really expecting the very worst," said Jeffrey Coons, co-director of research at Manning & Napier Advisors Inc., which manages $16 billion in Fairport, New York. "We're still going to have tough economic and earnings reports. But the amount of pessimism that was embedded in prices gives you a lot of room."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index increased 1 percent to 851.92. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 70.49 points, or 0.9 percent, to 7,957.06. About 10 stocks gained for every nine that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

Benchmark indexes fluctuated for most of the day before turning decisively higher in the final half hour of trading. The S&P 500 is up 26 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 as government efforts to fix the financial system and revive economic growth fuel speculation the global recession is subsiding. The Federal Reserve and U.S. government have pledged $12.8 trillion to boost the economy and consumer spending.

Hotel Rally

Analysts estimate that profits at S&P 500 companies decreased for the seventh straight quarter in the January to March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression.

Marriott International Inc. rose $2.41 to $22, its steepest gain of the year. The hotel chain posted a profit from operations excluding charges of 23 cents a share, beating the 13 cents projected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey, as cost cuts helped results.

Other hotel-related stocks also advanced. Host Hotels & Resorts Inc. climbed $1.02 to $7.10. Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. jumped 11 percent to $19.94.

EBay climbed $1.84 to $16.62. The most-visited U.S. e- commerce site's better-than-estimated sales and profit signaled that efforts to overhaul its auction and fixed-price retail site are working.

Apple added $3.89 to $125.40 after a doubling in sales of its iPhone and new versions of the iPod helped it sidestep a slump in consumer spending.

ConocoPhillips

ConocoPhillips surged $1.87 to $39.93 as the third-biggest U.S. oil producer said first-quarter profit fell less than analysts estimated after output topped the company's forecast.

NYSE Euronext, which operates the world's largest stock exchange, surged $2.81, or 14 percent, to $23.37 after Manager- Magazin reported that Deutsche Boerse AG restarted merger talks, citing unidentified people in the financial industry. Still, four people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg News that the second round of talks since January probably won't result in a takeover.

Pactiv Corp. climbed the most in the S&P 500, advancing 21 percent to $20.82. The maker of Hefty garbage bags increased its forecast, predicting earnings excluding some items of at least $1.97 a share this year.

RadioShack Corp. gained 15 percent to $12.39. The electronics chain reported first-quarter earnings per share of 34 cents, beating the average analyst estimate by 59 percent.

Financials Gain

The S&P 500 Financials Index of 80 banks, insurers and investment firms rose 4.5 percent for the biggest gain among 10 industry groups in the index. The gauge is up 76 percent from a 17-year low reached March 6.

Fifth Third Bancorp gained 3.5 percent to $3.82. The Ohio bank reported a loss per share excluding items that was narrower than the consensus estimate of 28 cents.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc. added 7.5 percent to $40.93. The fifth-largest U.S. bank by deposits said first- quarter profit rose 38 percent on higher mortgage income as customers refinanced their homes.

American Express Co., the largest credit-card company by purchases, surged 7.9 percent for the biggest gain in the Dow average. Bank of America Corp. rose 6.8 percent to $8.82. Wells Fargo & Co. jumped 11 percent to $20.09. Capital One Financial Corp. rallied 18 percent to $16.93.

GM, Home Depot

General Motors Corp. slumped 4.1 percent to $1.62 for the biggest decline in the Dow average. The automaker said the lack of a resolution in Delphi Corp.'s bankruptcy could force GM into an uncontrolled shutdown. General Motors said it will idle 13 assembly plants for multiple weeks to reduce inventory.

Home Depot Inc., the largest home-improvement retailer, lost 41 cents, or 1.6 percent, to $25.76. Purchases of existing homes decreased 3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million, lower than forecast, from 4.71 million in February, the National Association of Realtors said. The median price slumped 12 percent from a year ago and distressed properties accounted for about 50 percent of sales

United Parcel Service lost 2.6 percent to $53.33. The world's largest package-delivery company posted a profit that trailed estimates and forecast second-quarter earnings short of analysts' projections as the recession ravages shipping demand.

'Under Pressure'

U.S. economic weakness will mean that profit margins will "remain under pressure" throughout 2009, UPS Chief Financial Officer Kurt Kuehn said on a conference call with analysts and investors.

A gauge of 28 raw-materials producers fell 0.3 percent for the second-biggest decline in the S&P 500 among 10 industry groups as copper prices slumped and Nucor Corp. reported its first quarterly loss in at least 19 years.

Nucor, the second-largest U.S.-based steel producer, fell 9.2 percent to $40. U.S. Steel Corp. and AK Steel Holding Corp. lost at least 4.6 percent.

Copper fell 3.4 percent, capping the biggest four-day drop this year, as a jump in claims for jobless benefits triggered concern that a weak labor market will prolong the recession and a slump in metal demand. The metal is down 9.4 percent this week, the sharpest four-day slide since Dec. 5.

The number of Americans filing first-time applications for unemployment insurance rose last week to 640,000 as forecast. Total benefit rolls climbed to 6.14 million, reaching a record for a 12th straight week and indicating the labor market continues to deteriorate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .





Thursday, April 23, 2009

Reliance Fourth-Quarter Net Profit Falls 9.2%, Missing Analysts' Estimates

     

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Reliance Industries Ltd., owner of the world's biggest refining complex, posted its second consecutive decline in quarterly profit as the global recession cut demand for fuels, driving down margins.

Net income in the three months ended March 31 fell 9.2 percent to 35.5 billion rupees ($709 million), or 23.4 rupees a share, from 39.1 billion rupees, or 26.9 rupees, a year earlier, Reliance said in a statement to the Bombay Stock Exchange today. Sales declined 24 percent to 283.6 billion rupees.

Reliance, controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, gets 70 percent of its revenue from exports of gasoline and fuel that have slowed as the world economy contracts. Profit may recover after the company started selling natural gas from its biggest field in India.

"We see their gas business driving the company in the future," said Rohit Nagraj, Mumbai-based analyst with Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. "The company managed to hold refining margins this quarter, but the overall outlook for that business is bleak globally."

Reliance made a one-time provision of 3.7 billion rupees toward estimated claims on account of subsidiaries, the company said in the statement, without elaborating. Profit before providing for the claims was 38.7 billion rupees. The median estimate of 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg was for net income of 36.5 billion rupees.

Income from activities other than the main business of refining, chemicals and retailing increased to 9.9 billion rupees in the quarter from 2.9 billion rupees a year earlier, the Mumbai-based company said.

Share Gain

India's most valuable company, which reported its first drop in profit in three years in the December quarter, has climbed 43 percent in Mumbai trading this year compared with a 15 percent gain in the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index.

The stock gained 2.7 percent to 1,763.7 rupees in Mumbai today before Reliance reported earnings.

Ambani is investing $5.2 billion to develop the first phase of the KG-D6 field in the Krishna-Godavari basin off the east coast. Reliance may spend an additional $5.9 billion on developing fields around the areas from where gas production started on April 2, according to V.K. Sibal, India's oil regulator.

Gas, Recession

Gas output may climb to 80 million cubic meters a day in a year, R.S. Pandey, the government's Oil Secretary, said April 2.

The area may hold as much as 9.2 trillion cubic feet of gas, according to Reliance's partner Niko Resources Ltd., based in Calgary, Canada.

Gas sales to power producers and fertilizer makers in India may help offset a slump in fuel demand and refining margins as the world economy shrinks. Reliance may also benefit from the rupee's 2.5 percent decline against the dollar this year.

The International Monetary Fund said yesterday the world economy will shrink 1.3 percent this year and the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than previously thought as financial markets take longer to stabilize.

Oil prices in New York rebounded today as the dollar dropped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities as a currency hedge.

Crude oil for June delivery rose as much as $1.07, or 2.2 percent, to $49.92 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $49.47 at 1:44 p.m. London time.

Refining Margins

Reliance made a profit of $9.9 from turning a barrel of crude oil into fuels at its refinery during the quarter, the company said. That compares with $15.5 a barrel a year earlier.

"The difference between prices of heavy and light crude oil has narrowed and this has affected Reliance's refinery margins," said Mumbai-based Deepak Pareek, an analyst at Angel Broking Ltd., who has a "buy" rating on the stock.

UBS AG cut its forecast for first-half refining margins in Asia by 60 percent, citing expectations of overcapacity due to lower demand and the start-up of production plants. Average Singapore refining margins may be $4 a barrel this half, down from an earlier forecast of $10 a barrel, UBS said in a March 24 report.

"Lower margins from the core refining business will partly be offset by a weaker rupee," said Amit Rustagi, a Mumbai-based analyst at Antique Stock Broking Ltd. He recommends investors buy Reliance shares.

Local Sales

Reliance also plans to counter declining overseas demand by selling fuels within India, the second-fastest growing major economy, and has given up the export-only status of its first refinery at Jamnagar in Gujarat state. The plant is capable of processing 33 millions tons of crude a year.

In December, the company started operating a 29 million ton-a-year oil refinery adjacent to the older unit. The new refinery can produce high-quality fuels using low-grade crude and shift production among products based on market prices.

Net income for the financial year ended March 31, including one-time items, fell 22 percent to 152.8 billion rupees on sales of 1.5 trillion rupees, Reliance said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Archana Chaudhary in Mumbai at achaudhary2@bloomberg.net Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net .







India Wholesale-Inflation Rate Holds Near 27-Year Low

April 23 (Bloomberg) -- India's inflation held near a 27- year low, suggesting the central bank's six interest-rate cuts since October may help spur growth without rekindling inflation.

Wholesale prices rose 0.26 percent in the week to April 11 from a year earlier after gaining 0.18 percent the previous week, the commerce ministry said in New Delhi today. That was more than 0.10 percent increased expected by 21 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The wholesale price index may turn negative in the next few months though that shouldn't be interpreted as deflation as consumer-price gains continue to run at near double-digits, according to central bank Governor Duvvuri Subbarao. The Reserve Bank of India this week cut borrowing costs to a record low to bolster an economy growing at the weakest pace since 2003.

"The sharp deceleration of wholesale price growth is a clear indication that inflationary pressures have evaporated and the Reserve Bank should now focus more on reviving economic growth," said Sherman Chan, an economist at Moody's Economy.com in Sydney. "I expect the central bank to maintain a loosening bias in the coming months."

The yield on the 6.05 percent note due 2019 rose to 6.20 as of 12:10 p.m. in Mumbai, from 6.19 percent immediately before the report, according to the central bank's trading system.

Inflation in South Asia's largest economy has eased since surging last August to a 16-year high of 12.91 percent amid soaring commodity costs.

Interest Rates

India's average annual inflation rate was zero percent in the fiscal year 1978-79 and prices declined by 1.1 percent in the year 1975-76, according to older central bank data that doesn't provide a weekly breakdown.

Governor Subbarao on April 21 reduced the central bank's reverse repurchase rate and the repurchase rate by a quarter point each to 3.25 percent and 4.75 percent respectively, dropping them to the lowest since they were introduced in 2000.

Slowing inflation is enabling policy makers across South Asia to cut interest rates and fight the impact of the worst global recession since World War II. Sri Lanka yesterday reduced its repurchase rate to 9 percent from 10.25 percent after Pakistan on April 20 lowered its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2002.

India's central bank in its annual policy announcement on April 21 said any decline in wholesale prices may not persist beyond the middle of the fiscal year that started April 1 and that inflation may reach 4 percent by next March. The bank also expects consumer-price inflation to slow in the coming weeks.

Farm Workers

Consumer prices paid by industrial workers rose 9.63 percent in February from a year earlier, after gaining 10.45 percent the previous month, according to government data. Consumer-price inflation for farm workers was 10.79 percent in the same period.

The inflation rate rose in the week to April 11 as the manufactured price index, accounting for 63.75 percent of the inflation basket, increased 0.9 percent from a year earlier after gaining 0.75 percent in the previous week. Prices of vegetables, fruits, cereals, sugar, salt and cooking oil rose in the week, today's report showed.

India's $1.2 trillion economy is forecast by the central bank to expand by 6 percent in the fiscal year that started April 1, the slowest pace since 2003, after estimated growth of 6.5 percent to 6.7 percent in the previous year. The economy expanded 5.3 percent in the December quarter from a year earlier.

'Greater Concern'

"With little prospect of an imminent economic recovery, we expect to see the central bank cut rates again, probably after the general election," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Singapore. The Reserve Bank's actions "indicate that the growth outlook remains of greater concern than inflation."

India is holding national elections that started on April 16 and will continue until May 13, with counting of ballots due to be held on May 16. Most opinion polls say Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's Congress party may emerge with most seats, though it may have to rope in new allies to secure a majority in the legislature.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal@bloomberg.net .



Emerging-Market Short Sales Climb Most Since 2007 as Profit Outlook Dims



April 23 (Bloomberg) -- Short sellers are increasing bets against developing-nation stocks by the most since March 2007, a signal the biggest rally in 16 years may fizzle as profits plunge from Brazil to Taiwan.

Short interest in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund, which tracks equities in 23 developing nations, climbed 51 percent in March, the biggest jump in two years, according to New York Stock Exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Wagers against Rio de Janeiro-based oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA's U.S.-traded shares were the highest since August 2005. Those against display maker AU Optronics Corp. of Hsinchu, Taiwan surged to an eight-month high, the data show.

The growth in short sales, where investors borrow stock and sell it on the expectation prices will fall, marks a shift from the last three rebounds in emerging-market stocks. In those cases traders closed out their bets. The MSCI gauge, up 32 percent from its 2009 low on March 2, may drop 10 percent in coming weeks as falling earnings damp investor optimism, ING Investment Management SA's Eric Conrads said.

"We aren't out of the woods," said Conrads, a Mexico City-based hedge fund manager at ING, which oversees $12 billion in emerging-market assets. Conrads started betting against developing-nation equities this month, convinced the stocks are in a "bear-market rally," he said.

The MSCI index is down 3 percent from a six-month high on April 16, rising 0.3 percent yesterday to 629.23. The iShares fund mimics the performance of the MSCI index and can be bought and sold like a stock.

Traders who increased short positions in the iShares fund during the 40 percent rally in emerging-market stocks from August 2007 to October 2007 proved prescient.

Bear Market

The MSCI gauge peaked at a record 1,338.49 on Oct. 29, 2007, and tumbled 66 percent through Oct. 27 last year, the worst bear market in the index's 20-year history. The retreat was spurred by a collapse in U.S. consumer spending and a freeze in credit markets that sent the global economy into its first recession since World War II.

MSCI's emerging-market index climbed as much as 34 percent from October 2008 to January as short sellers ended 52 percent of their bets against the iShares fund on speculation that the worst of the economic contraction was over. As the index kept climbing in March, posting its best month since 1993, short interest surged to 96.1 million shares, or 11 percent of the fund's total shares outstanding, the NYSE data show.

Petrobras

Bets against American depositary receipts of Petrobras increased 61 percent in March to 34.1 million, or 1.4 percent of the shares available for trading, according to Bloomberg data. Wagers against AU Optronics, the world's third-largest maker of liquid-crystal displays, climbed 26 percent to 13.1 million, or 1.5 percent of the traded shares, Bloomberg data show. The company gained 17 percent during the month, while Petrobras advanced 9.9 percent.

Short interest in all stocks traded on the NYSE rose 11 percent last month to 4.23 percent of shares outstanding. The NYSE releases short interest data to mid-April at the end of this week.

Equity prices climbed too fast after March 1 given the outlook for earnings, said Martin Herbon, who manages a Latin America hedge fund for Geneva-based Union Capital Group SA.

Emerging-market profits may drop 26 percent this year, according to Citigroup Inc. Taiwan companies may post a 29 percent slide in net income, the steepest decline among developing countries in Asia, and Brazilian earnings may fall 37 percent, the most in Latin America, the New York-based bank said in an April 15 research note.

Trailing Estimates

Twenty-nine of the 41 companies in the MSCI index that posted profits since the end of the first quarter trailed analysts' estimates, according to Bloomberg data. The gauge trades at 11.4 times earnings, near the most expensive in almost nine months, the data show. At least 256 companies in the index are scheduled to report earnings in the next month.

"Prices have gone up, but the earnings still need some reviews," said Herbon, who helps oversee $900 million and is using exchange-traded funds to bet on declines in Brazilian shares. This rally "seems too early," he said.

The MSCI gauge posted an average decline of 1.6 percent during three-month periods following jumps of at least 25 percent in short interest on the iShares fund since 2006, according to Bloomberg data.

False Signals

Increases in short sales sometimes send false sell signals. The MSCI gauge rose 16 percent in three months after a 41 percent jump in short interest in September 2006. When short sales climbed 59 percent in March 2007, the MSCI gauge added 19 percent in the next three months.

Traders are too bearish and the latest equity rally is the beginning of a new bull market, according to Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius, Traxis Partners LLC's Barton Biggs and Fisher Investments Inc.'s Kenneth Fisher, who together oversee more than $40 billion.

"The market is beginning to tentatively price in the likelihood of an economic recovery," said Christopher Palmer, who helps manage about $4 billion as the London-based head of global emerging markets at Gartmore Investment Management Ltd.

The International Monetary Fund said yesterday that the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than previously thought. It's still too early to turn bullish on emerging-market stocks because there's a risk the global economy will deteriorate, said Jason Hepner, an Edinburgh-based money manager at Standard Life Investments Ltd., which oversees about $178 billion. Hepner is holding fewer emerging-market shares than are represented in benchmark indexes.

"We're looking for clear signs of bottoming in global growth before turning positive on emerging-market equities."

To contact the reporters on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net .





Tech mahindra

Buy cmp 333.60

Tata steel

Buy cmp 254 target 298

Volatile

Market very volatile but can not rise much. Hold on to short
positions. No index except FMCG shows uptrend.

Reliance communication

Buy cmp 221 target 242, 286. Short term investment

Short

Rel infra
Rel INd infra
Rel cap
Hdfc bk
Rolta
Sea goa

Where you are holding shares in hand you can sell them now and buy
back later in d day or after a few days. Inyra day sell purchase can
save the brokerage too , I need not tell you, you are well seat being
expert traders now.

Short sell intra day

Aban
Bharti
Maruti
Educomp

SBI

Short sell infra day

Market now

It's selling off.

Good morning

Hi there,

US markets cues are not good. Other global cues are mixed. But our
market should open gap down. Let's wait for opening the markets,

With regards,
Jagruti.

Stocks in U.S. Slide as Late Drop in Financial Companies Snuffs Out Rally



April 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated for the second time this week as concern that government stress tests will reveal weakness in banks snuffed out an early rally spurred by an unexpected improvement in housing prices.

Morgan Stanley, the fifth-biggest bank by assets, tumbled 9 percent after posting a wider-than-estimated loss, while KeyCorp tumbled 13 percent after BMO Capital Markets said credit problems are spreading. Wells Fargo & Co. fell 3.4 percent, erasing an earlier rally of 9.3 percent, after Chief Financial Officer Howard Atkins said "credit may not have turned yet."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 0.8 percent to 843.55, erasing a rally of 1.4 percent in the final 45 minutes of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 82.99 points, or 1 percent, to 7,886.57, reversing an earlier 75-point gain.

"It was just a roller coaster," said Frank Ingarra, the Stamford, Connecticut-based manager of the $160 million Hennessy Focus 30 Fund that beat 98 percent of its peers in the past five years. "People are uncomfortable holding the financials for the whole day. The financials just fell out of bed."

The market's earlier advance came after AT&T Inc. posted better-than-estimated earnings, General Electric Co. reiterated its projection that its finance unit will be profitable and a gauge of home prices unexpectedly increased 0.7 percent in February from January, the first consecutive monthly gain in two years.

Gains Erased

The rally was reversed as concern grew that government stress tests will undermine confidence in banks. The Obama administration may direct banks that are judged to be short of capital to disclose how they are going to get additional funds when the government reveals the results on May 4, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Should the U.S. unemployment rate rise to 12 percent from its current 25-year high of 8.5 percent, then most banks will need to raise more capital, Paul Miller, an analyst at Friedman Billings Ramsey Group Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

"The higher we go the worse off these banks are going to be," Miller said during a Bloomberg Television interview today.

Morgan Stanley fell $2.21 to $22.44. The bank reported a loss of 57 cents a share, wider than the 8-cent deficit estimated by analysts as real-estate and debt-related writedowns overwhelmed trading gains. The company also cut its dividend to 5 cents a share from 27 cents.

KeyCorp, Wells Fargo

KeyCorp fell 90 cents to $6.15, the biggest decline in the S&P 500, after BMO Capital Markets downgraded Ohio's second- largest bank to "market perform" from "outperform," saying the company's "problem assets are spreading to other loan portfolios."

Wells Fargo & Co. dropped 63 cents to $18.18. Atkins said in an interview on CNBC that he doesn't know what the U.S. may say in their stress tests and told Bloomberg Television that "I don't want to say we're out of the woods yet." The second- biggest U.S. bank by market value rallied earlier after saying first-quarter profit rose 53 percent as borrowers rushed to refinance mortgages.

The S&P 500 Financials Index of 80 banks, insurers and investment firms closed down 3.8 percent after rising as much as 2.2 percent. The gauge is still up 68 percent from a 17-year low reached March 6.

Earnings per share decreased 25 percent on average at the 113 companies in the index that reported results since April 7. Analysts estimate that profits dropped for the seventh straight quarter, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression.

Prudential, Merck Drop

Prudential Financial Inc., the second-biggest U.S. life insurer, fell 5.7 percent to $24.32 after deteriorating results prompted Barclays Plc to downgrade the company to "underperform."

Merck & Co., the drugmaker buying rival Schering-Plough Corp., fell 2.4 percent to $22.97. GlaxoSmithKline Plc plans to release the first study to compare its cervical cancer vaccine with Merck's blockbuster Gardasil, more than a year after completing the research.

General Electric added 10 cents to $11.80. Chief Financial Officer Keith Sherin reiterated that GE's finance unit will be profitable this year, easing concern that the credit crisis would trigger a loss in the company's biggest business segment. The shares rallied as much as 6.7 percent earlier before paring gains as the market turned lower.

Caterpillar Inc. jumped 3.4 percent to $32.45 for the biggest rally in the Dow average. The world's largest maker of bulldozers and earth-moving equipment was upgraded to "overweight" from "neutral" at JPMorgan.

'Flooded With Earnings'

AT&T Inc. climbed 1.8 percent to $25.74 after reporting first quarter profit of 53 cents a share, topping the average analyst estimate of 48 cents. The company trimmed payrolls and encouraged customers to spend more on services such as text messaging.

"We've been flooded with earnings reports and most of them were either in-line or a little better than expected," said James Paulsen, who helps oversee $375 billion as chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis.

Of the S&P 500 companies that reported earnings from the close of trading yesterday through today's open, 22 beat the average analyst estimate and 10 missed, according to Bloomberg data.

Treasury 10-year yields touched 2.96 percent, the highest level since the day the Federal Reserve announced it would buy U.S. debt, after the home-price report added to signs the economy may be improving.

'Tail Risk'

The benchmark index has rebounded 25 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 as government efforts to fix the financial system and revive economic growth fueled speculation the first global recession since World War II will end.

The risk of "sizable moves" in global stock markets has abated over the last five months amid a decline in economic uncertainty even as the world faces its worst recession since World War II, according to Morgan Stanley.

Options markets suggest that the probability of so-called tail risks are "thinning" as investors sell contracts protecting against large swings in equities into the market, the brokerage said. By selling options, investors are betting they won't be exercised, allowing them to keep as profit the price paid.

The probability of a decline of more than 50 percent over the next 12 months in the S&P 500 is now 9 percent compared with 17 percent in November, it said. The brokerage based its prediction on S&P 500 skew, which measures the cost of options to bet on or protect against large swings.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net





Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Stocks Decline a Third Day, Pare Rally; Bharti Airtel, Maruti Suzuki Drop



April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks fell for a third day as some investors judged recent gains excessive and on concern a fractured national election outcome may hinder stable government.

Bharti Airtel Ltd., the nation's biggest mobile phone services provider, fell 1 percent. The shares remain 30 percent higher since they reached this year's low on March 12. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. dropped 4.4 percent, leaving India's largest carmaker 46 percent up from its 2009 low on Jan. 23.

"We are seeing profit-booking after the sharp rally," said Jitendra Sriram, who oversees about $537 million in stocks at HSBC Asset Management (India) Pvt. in Mumbai. "As elections approach, markets will become more volatile as no clear mandate seems to be emerging for any party."

Indians are voting in a general election ending May 13 with opinion polls showing neither the governing Congress party-led United Progressive Alliance nor the opposition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party winning a clear majority. The second voting phase takes place tomorrow.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index fell 0.7 percent to 10,817.54. It earlier rose as much as 1.3 percent. The index has gained 33 percent since this year's low on March 9. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange dropped 1 percent to 3,330.30. The BSE 200 Index slid 0.9 percent to 1,287.47. Nifty futures for April delivery declined 0.8 percent to 3,338.

Bharti slid 1 percent to 712.60 rupees. The stock's 14-day relative strength index, which measures how rapidly prices rose or fell during the period, climbed above 70 yesterday. Some investors regard readings at 70 and above as a signal to sell. Maruti fell 4.4 percent to 754.15 rupees, extending yesterday's 5.7 percent decline. Its relative strength index was above 70 on April 20.

The following shares were among the most active on the exchange:

Derivatives Section: The National Exchange will exclude NIIT Ltd. (NIIT IN) and 49 other companies from its derivatives section starting on May 4.

NIIT fell 8.2 percent to 25.7 rupees. 3i Infotech Ltd. (III IN) dropped 10 percent to 40.95 rupees. IRB Infrastructure Developers Ltd. (IRB IN) declined 6.8 percent to 96.70 rupees. UTV Software Communications Ltd. (UTV IN) slid 10 percent to 319.20 rupees. Gitanjali Gems Ltd. (GITG IN) fell 11 percent to 66.80 rupees. Balaji Telefilms Ltd. (BLJT IN) retreated 9.4 percent to 42.35 rupees. Reliance Industrial Infrastructure Ltd. (RIIL IN) dropped 13 percent to 650.50 rupees.

ACC Ltd. (ACC IN) gained 4.9 percent to 646.70 rupees. India's biggest cement maker said first-quarter profit rose 13 percent to 4.05 billion rupees. Profit beat the 3.36 billion rupee median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

Axis Bank Ltd. (AXSB IN) fell 4.4 percent to 472.15 rupees. The Indian lender was reduced to "sell" from "hold" at Deutsche Bank AG, which cited concern over credit quality and a change in management.

Rolta India Ltd. (RLTA IN) declined 15 percent to 87.50 rupees. The stock was cut to "hold" from "buy" at BNP Paribas, which cited the company's "weak" third-quarter results.

Wipro Ltd. (WPRO IN): The No. 3 software developer gained 2.4 percent to 281.05 rupees. Net income climbed to 9.07 billion rupees in the three months ended March 31. The rupee's 21 percent decline against the dollar in the past year has helped Wipro hold down prices, enabling U.S. customers to save costs as they contend with the worst recession in six decades. Wipro was expected to report profit of 8.9 billion rupees, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net





National Stock Exchange of India to Remove 50 Stocks From Derivative List



April 22 (Bloomberg) -- India's National Stock Exchange Ltd. said it will remove Jet Airways (India) Ltd. and 49 other stocks from the derivatives section of the exchange following its regular review of the companies.

The securities will be removed effective May 4, the exchange said in a statement.

The existing unexpired contracts for April, May and June will continue to be available for trading until they expiry, and new strikes will also be introduced in these existing contract months, the exchange said in a circular posted on its Web site late yesterday.

Other stocks that will be excluded from the derivatives trading list include Wockhardt Ltd., NIIT Ltd., Rajesh Exports Ltd. and HCL Infosystems Ltd.

To contact the reporters on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net





Tata elxi

Buy cmp 103 target 114,134

Sensex

Sensex daily chart shows falling wedge and hence market will fall
technically. Support seen at around 10130 , if breaks it can go up to
9500.

Ruchi soya

Buy at cmp 31. It has crossed 52week high.

Attention

Market selling off. Book profits.

Buy

Orchid chem
Godrej ind
Acc
Lanco infra
Ongc

Ivrcl infra

Buy cmp163

Today's pick

Buy
Reliance
Rel cap
SBI
Rel infra
LT
Wipro
Diwan hsg
Bag fil med

India's Sensex Index Shows Sell Signals After Rallying: Technical Analysis



April 22 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should cut their holdings of riskier Indian stocks after a rally helped the nation's benchmark index outperform both emerging and global markets in the past month and as volatility rises, Morgan Stanley said.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has risen to its 200-day moving average, indicating that investors should consider selling shares, Morgan Stanley analysts Ridham Desai and Sheela Rathi said in a report. The Indian stocks rally is the sixth since the bear market began in January 2008, as well as the strongest, the analysts said.

The Sensex has jumped 22 percent in the past month, the seventh-best performer among the 89 indexes tracked by Bloomberg globally in the month till yesterday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 13 percent during the period, while the MSCI World Index, which tracks developed nations, climbed 8.4 percent.

"India has outperformed emerging markets and the world in this rally, underpinning its high beta status," the analysts said. The Sensex's advance to the moving average "is usually a good signal to sell in a bear market."

The seven-day moving average for the ratio comparing advances and declines in the Indian market has also climbed to the highest since at least January 2008, making the current advance the broadest during the period, the analysts said. Indexes tracking small and medium-sized companies have also posted better gains than the Sensex, according to the report.

Investors should reduce so-called portfolio beta as the ongoing elections and earnings season increases volatility in the market, the analysts said. Indians began electing on April 16 a new government that will have to revive an economy growing at its slowest pace in six years. Polls end on May 13.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net .





Good morning

Hi frenz,

Market is expected to remain flat. Momentum is weak. Put call ratio
down. Cost of carry negative. All this indicate that our market will
not see heavy gains.

Around 50 scrips are excluded from f&o from next series hence, be
careful while entering fno contracts.

Let us watch after announcing credit policy by RBI and rate cuts by
banks, how the banks trade.

See you on market opening,

Jagruti.

Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Bharti airtel

Buy now it has crossed 52week high of 704.

Short

Rel cap cmp507

Short

Icici bank, maruti

Buy

Chambal fert cmp46

Buy

Educomp cmp2462

Buy

Utv software cmp342 target 500

Buy

GHCL cmp28.55

Shiv vani

Buy cmp 164.20 target min204

Buy

Era info cmp87.40 target485

Buy

20microns cmp20.50 target96

Good morning

Hi frenz,

Global cues are very bad , all markets in red , US slide too. We are
sure to open gap down. If market goes high anytime short nifty or buy
nifty put. Certainly there will be good returns. Selling shares that
rose too much in last 4 weeks like maruti is best strategy. Market
updates during the day will not be possible in first half due to
technical problems but I will be with you.

Have a best trading day in sliding markets too,

Jagruti.

Monday, April 20, 2009

Leading U.S. Indicators Signal Recession Will Extend to Second Half of '09





April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in March, signaling what may be the longest recession in the postwar era will extend into the second half of the year.

The Conference Board's gauge, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February. The gauge hasn't risen since June.

Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained. Stocks dropped as a report by Bank of America Corp. raised concern Americans will keep falling behind on loan payments.

"There's no reason to think that this recession is going to end any time this spring or this summer," Ken Goldstein, an economist at the New York-based Conference Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. While "there is at least a little bit of a hint that the intensity may begin to back off over the next few months" the recession is "going to be a long slog," he said.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 3.4 percent to 840.45 at 12:18 p.m. in New York. Treasuries climbed, sending benchmark 10-year note yields down to 2.84 percent from 2.95 percent at the close last week.

Economists' Forecasts

The leading-indicators index was expected to decline 0.2 percent, according to the median of 51 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, after an originally reported decrease of 0.4 percent the prior month.

Six of the 10 measures in today's report subtracted from the index, led by a plunge in building permits and declining stock prices. Faster vendor performance -- signaling a decrease in order backlogs -- a decline in factory hours, rising jobless claims and a drop in bookings for capital goods also contributed to the drop.

"We are looking for a recovery that is significantly less robust than what is typically seen after deep recessions," said Dean Maki, co-head of U.S. economic research at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York.

A report today from Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, took some of the shine off the rebound in equities that began in mid March. The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank said first-quarter profit more than tripled on gains from home refinancing and trading. Still, the stock dropped as rising charge-offs for uncollectible loans overshadowed the earnings.

Lewis's 'Challenges'

"We continue to face extremely difficult challenges primarily from deteriorating credit quality driven by weakness in the economy and growing unemployment," Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis, said in a statement.

Three of the leading components improved last month, led by an increase in the supply of money. Other positives were a gain in the University of Michigan consumer expectations gauge and a widening spread between the 10-year Treasury and the overnight fed funds rate. Orders for consumer goods were little changed.

Increased lending and purchases of securities by the Fed since credit markets seized last year have contributed to a jump in the money supply, the biggest component of the leading index.

Still, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week said the credit crisis will probably cause "long-lasting" damage to home prices and household wealth.

GDP Decline

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg in the first week of April forecast consumer spending will falter this quarter after a first-quarter spurt and recover only gradually toward the end of the year. Gross domestic product will probably decline at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter after an estimated 5 percent drop in the first three months of the year, according to the survey. Growth will pick up to an average pace of almost 1 percent in the second half, the surveyed showed.

The recession that began in December 2007 already matches the longest since 1933, and the 6.3 percent decline in fourth- quarter GDP was the biggest since 1982. The downturn has cost 5.1 million jobs and economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast the unemployment rate will rise to 9.5 percent by the end of the year.

The worst of the job losses may be over, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics.

Half of the executives surveyed said they expect employment at their companies to stay the same over the next six months, compared with 45 percent in January. The share forecasting a decrease through attrition declined to 22 percent from 27 percent, and the share expecting a drop due to "significant layoffs" dipped to 11 percent from 12 percent.

'Inflection Point'

"The economy is at an inflection point but has not yet reached a turning point," Sara Johnson, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts, and chairman of NABE's industry survey committee, said in a statement. "Key indicators -- industry demand, employment, capital spending and profitability -- are still declining, but the breadth of the decline is narrowing."

The Conference Board's index of coincident indicators, a gauge of current economic activity, decreased 0.4 percent, after falling 0.6 percent the prior month. The index, which tracks payrolls, incomes, sales and production, is used by the National Bureau of Economic Research to help determine the end of recessions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net





Stocks Fall on Concern Credit Losses Are Worsening; Bank of America Drops





April 20 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks declined following six straight weeks of gains as concern grew that credit losses are worsening and lower commodity prices dragged down energy and material producers.

Bank of America Corp., the lender that lost three-quarters of its market value in the past year, tumbled 16 percent as rising charge-offs for uncollectible loans overshadowed better- than-estimated earnings. Citigroup Inc. dropped 15 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said the bank's credit losses are growing at a "rapid rate." U.S. Steel Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp. declined as oil and industrial metal prices decreased.

"The market seems to follow the direction of financial stocks one way or another," said Keith Wirtz, who helps oversee $20 billion as chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management in Cincinnati. "There are definitely more writedowns ahead and more challenges for the loan portfolios, particularly in the consumer side of the equation."

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid 3.4 percent to 839.78 at 12:27 p.m. in New York, extending its drop after the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators fell more than forecast. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 227.8 points, or 2.8 percent, to 7,903.53. The Russell 2000 Index of small companies retreated 4.9 percent.

The S&P 500 wrapped up its steepest six-week gain since 1938 on April 17, as profits at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase & Co. ignited gains in bank shares. The rally may falter as a prolonged recession dents corporate earnings, George Hoguet, global investment strategist at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors Inc., said in an April 18 interview.

'Pullback'

The S&P 500 surged 29 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 through last week as expectations grew that the worst of a global recession is past. The rally came even as analysts estimate that profits at S&P 500 companies decreased for the seventh straight quarter in the January to March period, the longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression.

"We're likely to see a pullback in stock markets as earnings disappoint," Hoguet said in an interview in Shanghai. "We are undergoing a severe shock and the global economy will take several quarters to get back to trend growth." State Street Global Advisors oversees $1.4 trillion.

Bank of America fell $1.70 to $8.90 even after saying first-quarter net income more than tripled on gains from home refinancing and trading. Reserves for future loan losses increased 57 percent to $13.4 billion since the end of December. Charge-offs for uncollectible loans more than doubled to $6.94 billion from the same period a year earlier.

Citigroup's Credit Losses

Citigroup declined 54 cents to $3.11. The bank's credit losses are growing at a "rapid rate," undermining Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit's efforts to stabilize the company, according to Goldman Sachs.

While Citigroup posted first-quarter net income of $1.6 billion last week, the New York-based bank suffered an "underlying" loss of 38 cents a share, Richard Ramsden, a Goldman Sachs analyst, wrote in a research note dated yesterday. He repeated a "sell" rating on the stock.

American International Group Inc. fell 13 percent to $1.41. The insurer bailed out by the U.S. agreed to sell preferred stock and warrants for common shares to the government in return for access to $29.8 billion.

Capital One, Lennar Drop

Capital One Financial Corp. dropped 17 percent after the McLean, Virginia-based credit card lender was cut to "neutral" from "buy" at Goldman Sachs.

Lennar Corp. slumped 16 percent to $7.83 as the fourth biggest U.S. homebuilder by revenue said it has entered agreements for the possible sale of up to $275 million in Class A common stock.

Obama administration officials signaled there may be no need to request more financial-rescue funds from Congress as several banks plan to return taxpayer money and others are pushed to tap private markets first. The White House chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said while he had not seen results of stress tests on the 19 biggest banks, he believed the White House won't have to request more bailout funds.

"The first resort for more capital is going to the private markets," by issuing new equity or swapping some liabilities into stock that dilutes other stakeholders, National Economic Council Director Lawrence Summers said.

Global banks are likely to realize about $400 billion more in losses on soured assets, requiring further injections of government capital, according to JPMorgan mortgage-bond analysts led by Matthew Jozoff in a report dated April 17.

Earnings Season

International Business Machines Corp. slipped 1.1 percent to $100.21. After the close of trading, IBM may say that it had a profit of $1.66 per share last quarter, according to analysts' projections compiled by Bloomberg. Texas Instruments Inc., the second-biggest U.S. chipmaker, is also scheduled to report earnings today. The shares slipped 3.4 percent to $17.36.

Gauges of energy and raw-material producers fell by more than 3.5 percent as crude oil sank the most in seven weeks as a stronger dollar reduces the appeal of commodities. Copper prices also declined.

Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, fell 1.3 percent to $65.86. ConocoPhillips, the second-largest U.S. oil refiner, declined 4.8 percent to $38.23. U.S. Steel Corp. plunged 8.9 percent to $27.31.

Crude oil for May delivery fell $4.01, or 8 percent, to $46.32 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper futures for July delivery lost 3.8 percent, headed for the biggest drop for a most-active contract since March 30.

Sun Takeover

Sun Microsystems Inc. surged 36 percent, the biggest gain in the S&P 500, to $9.12 after Oracle Corp. agreed to buy the fourth-biggest server maker for $9.50 a share in cash. The transaction is valued at approximately $7.4 billion.

PepsiCo Inc., the world's second-largest soft-drink maker, offered about $6 billion in cash and stock to buy out other shareholders of its two biggest bottlers to gain greater control over product sales in North America. The shares slipped $2.05 to $50.08. Pepsi Bottling Group Inc. rallied 21 percent to $30.55 for the second-biggest advance in the index.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said that he was "still bearish" and that an economic recovery is going to take "longer than expected." Corporate earnings will "surprise on the downside," Roubini said in a speech in Hong Kong today. "Lots of banks, even the better ones, are going to be in trouble."

The index of U.S. leading economic indicators in March fell more than forecast, indicating any recovery from what may be the longest recession in the postwar era is still many months away.

The Conference Board's gauge fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February that was smaller than previously estimated, the New York-based research group said today. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net .





Market slipping

Long positions have started unwinding it seems as April series is
coming to end on 30th. It is hard to see market going up in next
10days. Thenafter the trend of the market will be decided. Europe
market and Dow futures also opened in red. Short position can be
created.

European Stocks, U.S. Futures Drop; BHP, Rio Fall, Most Asian Shares Gain

April 20 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks fell and U.S. futures
retreated, sending the MSCI World Index lower after six straight weeks
of advances. Most stocks in Asia climbed as China's Premier Wen
Jiabao said that a stimulus plan was producing "better-than-
expected" results.

BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group fell more than 1 percent as
metals retreated. Bank of China Ltd., the country's second-biggest
lender, climbed 3.9 percent in Hong Kong.

Companies from Bank of America Corp. to International Business
Machines Corp. and Halliburton Co. are scheduled to report earnings
today. Analysts estimate that profits at S&P 500 companies decreased
for the seventh straight quarter in the January to March period, the
longest stretch of declines since at least the Great Depression.

The MSCI World Index slipped 0.2 percent at 8:10 a.m. in London. The
gauge of 23 developed nations has rebounded 28 percent since March 9
as the biggest U.S. lenders said they made money at the beginning of
2009 and investors speculated the U.S. government's plan to purchase
as much as $1 trillion in toxic assets from banks will help to pull
the global economy out of its first recession since World War II.

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent. The regional
gauge added 4.7 percent last week to cap the longest stretch of weekly
gains since January 2006. NYSE Euronext delayed the start of trading
in its four European national cash equities markets due to technical
problems in the dissemination of data, the exchanges operator informed
traders.

About five stocks rose for every four that fell on the MSCI Asia
Pacific Index, which added 0.5 percent after earlier dropping as much
as 1.1 percent.

U.S. Futures

Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.5 percent. The benchmark index for
U.S. equities climbed 1.5 percent last week, reducing its 2009 retreat
to 3.7 percent, as profits at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan
Chase & Co. ignited a rally in bank shares.

So far, first-quarter incomes have fallen less than forecast. A total
of 66 percent of the S&P 500 companies that announced results since
the earnings season began two weeks ago beat Wall Street projections,
data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Still, the rally in global stocks is likely to falter as a prolonged
recession dents corporate earnings, according to State Street Global
Advisors Inc. Profits at S&P 500 companies dropped 38 percent in the
first quarter and may slide 32 percent in the second, according to
analysts' estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

'Severe Shock'

"We're likely to see a pullback in stock markets as earnings
disappoint," said George Hoguet, global investment strategist at
Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, which oversees $1.4
trillion. "We are undergoing a severe shock and the global economy
will take several quarters to get back to trend growth."

Separately, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who
predicted the financial crisis, said in Hong Kong that he was "still
bearish" and earnings will "surprise on the downside."

BHP Billiton, the world's largest mining company, lost 1.6 percent to
1,380 pence. Rio Tinto, the third-biggest, slid 1 percent to 2,375
pence. Nickel, copper and lead prices retreated on the London Metals
Exchange.

Bank of China added 3.9 percent to HK$2.92. Ping An Insurance (Group)
Co., the nation's second-largest insurer, gained 3.1 percent to HK
$52.60.

The government will continue its "proactive" fiscal policy while
the People's Bank of China will maintain its "moderately loose"
monetary policy, Wen said on April 18. The country's "rapid
reaction in rolling out the stimulus package has resolved some
prominent problems in the economy," he said.

Carphone Warehouse

Carphone Warehouse Group Plc declined 1.8 percent to 137 pence. The
U.K. mobile-phone retailer will this week say it delayed plans to
break up its retail and telecommunications units, the Sunday Telegraph
reported, without saying where it got the information.

Chief Executive Officer Charles Dunstone and Chief Financial Officer
Roger Taylor will give more information on the restructuring plan when
the company publishes its earnings, spokesman Shane Conway said in an
interview yesterday. He declined to provide further details or comment
on the Telegraph story.

The index of U.S. leading indicators for March may show today the
longest recession in the post-World War II era will start loosening
its grip in coming months. The gauge of the outlook over the next
three to six months dropped 0.2 percent following a 0.4 percent
February decrease, according to the median estimate of 40 economists
surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Stress Tests

Officials in U.S. President Barack Obama's administration have
signaled there may be no need to request more financial- rescue funds
from Congress as several banks plan to return taxpayer money and
others are pushed to tap private markets first.

White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel said while he had not seen
results of stress tests on the 19 biggest banks, he believed "we
won't" have to get more money. Aide Lawrence Summers said "the
first resort for more capital is going to the private markets," by
issuing new equity or swapping some liabilities into stock that
dilutes other stakeholders.

Stocks in India Advance a Second Day; Reliance Industries, ICICI Lead Gain



April 20 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks rose for a second day, led by Reliance Industries Ltd. and ICICI Bank Ltd., amid speculation overseas investors stepped up purchases of the nation's equities.

Reliance, the nation's most valuable company, rose 1.3 percent and ICICI, the country's second-largest lender, climbed 2.1 percent. Overseas investors were net buyers of Indian equities every day this month through April 16, data on the regulator's Web site shows. Larsen & Toubro Ltd., the nation's biggest engineering company, gained after Citigroup Inc. raised the stock's rating.

"Liquidity is driving this rally," said Jayesh Shroff, who helps manage $5.5 billion in assets at SBI Asset Management Co. in Mumbai.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index rose 1.1 percent to 11,148.31 as of 11:15 a.m. local time. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 1.1 percent to 3,420.55. The BSE 200 Index increased 1.6 percent to 1,324.02. Nifty futures for April delivery added 1.1 percent to 3,418.90.

Reliance rose 1.3 percent to 1,740 rupees. ICICI, the country's second-largest lender, gained 2.1 percent to 450.15 rupees.

Overseas funds acquired about $700 million worth of Indian stocks this month through April 16, according to the nation's market regulator. Foreign investors bought a net 3.96 billion rupees ($79 million) of the country's equities on April 16, the data shows.

Larsen rallied 2.7 percent to 892.50 rupees. India's biggest engineering company was raised to "buy" from "sell" at Citigroup, which cited the removal of an "overhang" from Satyam Computer Services Ltd. and the outlook for earnings.

Larsen lost the bidding for control of Satyam Computer, the software exporter at the center of India's biggest fraud inquiry. Tech Mahindra Ltd. won after agreeing to pay $579 million.

The following shares were among the most active on the exchange:

Cipla Ltd. (CIPLA IN), the country's third-biggest drugmaker by sales, fell 3.1 percent to 222.80 rupees after opposing Adcock Ingram Healthcare Ltd.'s bid for its marketing partner in South Africa. In addition, the Economic Times reported the U.S. drug regulator is investigating Cipla's manufacturing process at a factory in Bangalore.

Power Grid Corp. (PWGR IN) added 4.5 percent to 101.85 rupees. India's biggest electricity transmitter plans to spend 120 billion rupees this year, the Financial Express reported yesterday, citing Chairman and Managing Director S.K. Chaturvedi.

Satyam Computer (SCS IN) climbed 4 percent to 47.35 rupees. Tech Mahindra (TECHM IN) may have to consider cutting almost 10 percent of Satyam's workforce, the Wall Street Journal reported April 17, citing Satyam Chairman Kiran Karnik.

Tech Mahindra climbed 1.5 percent to 339.70 rupees. The company raised 6 billion rupees selling bonds, it said in a filing with the Bombay Stock Exchange on April 18.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net





Good morning,

Sorry frenz today also we can not meet, market updates won't be
possible. But market looks pretty good and holding up.
Have a nice day,

Jagruti.

Monitor link