Sensex

Sensex sustained just because of NAV manipulation on last day of
financial year i. e. 31st march.

Market trend is weak and weakness will be very obvious on tomorrow
opening.

Bombay dyeing

Buy at cmp 164

Siemens

Good buy at cmp 260

Market bearish

Sell at higher levels

Short sell cairn

Cairn India Field May Cut Nation's Oil Import Bill

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Cairn India Ltd., a unit of U.K.- based explorer Cairn Energy Plc, may produce enough crude from its field in Rajasthan state to slash the South Asian country's oil import bill by as much as 7 percent.

The explorer may start output in a month and generate more than $1 billion in 2010 based on current oil prices and a peak output rate that will reach 175,000 barrels a day, Chief Executive Officer Rahul Dhir said in an interview.

"The field will increase India's total oil production by 20 percent," Dhir said yesterday at the explorer's headquarters at Gurgaon, outside the national capital New Delhi. "We are helping substitute imports and generate cash for the central and state governments."

India imports more than 75 percent of its crude to meet demand in the world's second fastest-growing major economy. Cairn's gains from production will be capped by oil's 39 percent decline in a year as the global recession saps fuel consumption.

"The key risk for Cairn is oil prices," Deepak Pareek, analyst at Mumbai-based Angel Broking Ltd., said by telephone today. "The company's current share price reflects oil prices of around $65 a barrel and the upside from there is not very high."

Crude oil for May delivery was at $49.11 a barrel at 1:10 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it fell $3.97, or 7.6 percent, to $48.41 a barrel, the lowest settlement on the New York Mercantile Exchange since March 18 and the biggest decline since March 2.

Crude Imports

Cairn gained 1.3 percent to 182.8 rupees at 11:53 a.m. in Mumbai trading, compared with a 1.1 percent increase in the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index.

Asia's third-largest energy consumer spent $68 billion to buy crude from overseas in the year ended March 2008. The South Asian nation spent $70 billion on crude imports in the 10 months to Jan. 31 after oil prices rose to a peak in July, according to the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, a department of India's oil ministry.

Cairn India will generate as much as $2 billion every year starting 2011, once it reaches the peak output rate, Dhir said.

The company may need to offer a discount on prices because of the quality of the crude it produces from the Rajasthan field, said Amit Rustagi, analyst at Mumbai-based Antique Stock Broking Ltd., which has a "sell" rating on the stock.

Crude Discount

"There is still uncertainty about the discount Cairn needs to give for the oil," Rustagi said. "The quality of the crude oil is not very good compared with regional benchmarks."

Cairn is still in discussions with potential customers on prices, Dhir said.

"There may be a discount on the crude to Brent but the Rajasthan crude will be benchmarked to a regional variety," Dhir said. "The oil will produce heavier products and the price will need to reflect this."

Cairn may also have to give away half its profit to the Indian government from 2013-14 onward after recovering 2 1/2 times its investment in the field, according to Rustagi.

The government has named Indian Oil Corp., the nation's largest refiner, and Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd., a unit of explorer Oil & Natural Gas Corp., as potential buyers of Cairn India's crude, Oil Secretary R.S. Pandey said March 24. Oil & Natural Gas, the nation's largest energy explorer, holds a 30 percent stake in Cairn's Rajasthan field.

Finding Buyers

Indian Oil may buy a "maximum" of 1.5 million metric tons a year (30,000 barrels a day) of crude oil from Cairn, Basavaraj Ningappa Bankapur, director of refineries, said Feb. 4. The New Delhi-based refiner will use as much as 1 million tons of the crude at its Panipat refinery, he said.

Cairn India has asked the Indian government to nominate a refiner to buy its crude oil from Rajasthan after Mangalore Refinery, the designated buyer, declined to take the entire output. The explorer may consider exporting the oil if a local buyer isn't found, Dhir said Jan. 29.

He wasn't concerned about finding a purchaser for the crude.

"We have the concept of 'five minutes to midnight," Dhir said. "Eventually, the right decision happens. You just have to have the patience. The people who have the bigger economic incentive" are the federal and state governments.

The Indian government, which doesn't allow exports of crude, designates buyers for oil produced in the country.

The explorer has sought additional land around its field in Rajasthan from the government because it sees higher production potential at the site.

Potential Oil

"Parts of some potential oil pools lie outside the boundaries of the marked field," Dhir said. "We have asked the government to include these few thousands square kilometers as part of the field and I see no reason why the government wouldn't do it."

The explorer has discovered in-place oil reserves of 3.5 billion barrels, of which 2 billion barrels lie in the three main fields known as Mangala, Bhagyam and Aishwarya.

Cairn plans to recover about a third of these reserves. The recovery rate may increase by as much as 15 percent from 2013 after the explorer flushes out the oil using water mixed with chemicals.

"We will test this from next year and want to see it over two years at least," Dhir said. The use of chemicals in the recovery may increase Cairn's cost of production to $15 a barrel from $9 a barrel, Dhir said.

Cairn will produce 30,000 barrels a day of oil from the field in the three months starting June and will increase output to 80,000 barrels a day in the last three months of the year, Dhir said. It will reach a peak production rate of 175,000 barrels a day in 2011.

The explorer has also constructed crude-oil processing facilities with a capacity of 205,000 barrels a day, 17 percent higher than its peak output rate.

"We don't want to be capacity constrained," Dhir said. "Were we to produce more, we will be ready to handle it."

To contact the reporter on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net .

Welspun guj

Buy at cmp 76

United phos

Buy at cmp 100

Renuka sugar

Buy at cmp 90 for short term. Good rounding bottom formation on daily
chart.

Aban offshore

Buy med or long term cmp 400

Buy

Tv18, acc, united spirit.

Buy

Finance techno cmp 634
Voltramp
Ghcl. Cmp27.40

Short sell.

ICICI Target308 , HDFC target 1290, Reliance target 1360, Sterlite Target 290.

Good Morning

Hi Frenz,

Looks as if I am meeting all of you after ages !!

Global cues are very bad and our market can't be exception. It slipped yesterday and will slip more today. Bear market rally is over now. Do not carry long positions. Buy on dips if want to make long term investment.

Today's Watch:

Axis Bank
HDFC Bank
Unitech
CIPLA
India Cement
Tata Power

Short them. They will slide with momentum. Take short position for a few days.
Short Nifty.

Have a great trading day,
Jagruti.

Good morning

Hi friends,

There won't be any updates today. It's my day off after "Lavasa
Women's drive " yesterday. Please excuse me.

Jagruti.

U.S. Stocks Tumble, Trimming Gains at End of Three-Week Rally

March 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks retreated, trimming a third-straight weekly gain, as the heads of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. said results deteriorated in March and lower oil and metal prices dragged down commodity producers.

JPMorgan and Bank of America lost at least 3.2 percent, reducing this month's rally in financials triggered when the banks said they made money in January and February. Schlumberger Ltd. and Hess Corp. slid more than 4 percent following a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. report predicting lower oil prices. Accenture Ltd. tumbled 13 percent, the most since the company went public in 2001, after the technology-consulting firm cut its forecasts.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2 percent to 815.94. The gauge is up 11 percent in March, poised for its best month since 1991. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 148.38, or 1.9 percent, to 7,776.18. The Nasdaq Composite Index retreated 2.6 percent to 1,545.2. Seven stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

"You've got a lot of fear going into earnings," said John Nichol, who manages $1 billion in Pittsburgh including the Federated Equity Income Fund, which has beaten 74 percent of its peers over the past five years. "You need growth and there's just not a lot of growth right now."

Alcoa Inc., traditionally the first Dow average company to release results, will kick-off the first-quarter earnings season on April 7. Analysts polled by Bloomberg estimate profit during the period slumped 36 percent on average for S&P 500 companies as the recession wiped out consumer spending.

All 10 industries in the S&P 500 fell today as a measure of consumer confidence held in March near a three-decade low.

Rebound Trimmed

The slump today reduced the S&P 500's gain from a 12-year low on March 9 to 21 percent. The stock benchmark advanced 6.2 percent this week as the Treasury unveiled a plan to revive credit markets by helping investors buy toxic assets and companies from Best Buy Co. to ConAgra Foods Inc. beat analysts' profit estimates.

JPMorgan dropped 5.8 percent to $27.40. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said "March was a little tougher" than January and February. Bank of America lost 3.2 percent to $7.34. CEO Ken Lewis said the bank's trading book in March was "not as good as in the previous two months. Both executives spoke in interviews with the CNBC television network.

The S&P 500 Financials Index retreated 3.5 percent, trimming its rebound from a March 6 low to 51 percent, as Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives recommended legislation to curb "predatory" lending and encourage the use of traditional 30-year, fixed-rate loans.

'More to Come'

The new rules would prohibit banks from "directly or indirectly" hedging or transferring a minimum retained credit risk on most nontraditional mortgages, including some loans that have adjustable interest rates or require little documentation of a borrower's income.

"While we have had a great deal of bad news on banks, we think there is still more to come," said Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen in a Bloomberg Radio interview from New York. "We're certainly not yet in the clear -- whether in the U.S. or around the world."

The banking industry had its first loss in derivatives trading last year, driven by a fourth-quarter $9 billion rout in credit markets. U.S. commercial banks lost $836 million in 2008 from trading over-the-counter cash and derivatives contracts, compared with a $5.5 billion gain in 2007, the Office for the Comptroller of the Currency said in a report today.

Energy Slump

Schlumberger, the world's largest oilfield-services provider, dropped 4.4 percent to $43.52. Hess slumped 8.4 percent to $58.23. Crude oil declined 3.7 percent to $52.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, paring its sixth weekly increase.

Accenture tumbled 13 percent to $27.66. The second-biggest technology-consulting firm cut its profit and sales forecasts as the worsening economy curbed spending on computer equipment.

A measure of technology shares in the S&P 500 dropped 2.7 percent, the most in three weeks. The industry remains the S&P 500's best performer this year with a 4.9 percent advance.

Amazon.com Inc. fell 4.3 percent to $70.52. The world's largest Internet retailer was removed from the "conviction buy" list at Goldman Sachs because the shares are no longer cheap.

'Headwinds'

"There are still plenty of headwinds out there to concern equity investors," said Michael Koskuba, a New York-based fund manager at Victory Capital Management Inc., which oversees $50 billion. "Given the sharp rally we've seen, it makes sense for the market to sell off a bit."

The U.K. economy contracted 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the third quarter, exceeding the prior measurement of 1.5 percent, which was also the median forecast of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slipped 1.1 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed little changed after paring gains that drove valuations to the highest levels since December.

The Reuters/University of Michigan final index of consumer sentiment rose to 57.3 from 56.3 in February. The gauge, which has averaged 112 over the last three decades, reached a 28-year low of 55.3 in November.

Economy Watch

Growth in spending by U.S. shoppers slowed in February and incomes fell more than forecast amid the deteriorating job market, the Commerce Department reported. Bed Bath & Beyond Inc., Starbucks Corp. and Harley-Davidson Inc. fell more than 4 percent, leading the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index to a 2.1 percent loss.

Rising unemployment raises the risk that recent increases in purchases will be short-lived, extending the recession though much of 2009. Still, other economic reports this week showed the economy is stabilizing as home sales and demand for longer lasting products, such as refrigerators, airplanes and computer chips, unexpectedly grew in February.

General Motors Corp. jumped 6.2 percent to $3.62 for the biggest gain in the Dow average. The largest U.S. automaker hired Commerzbank AG to find an investor for its Opel unit in Europe, two people familiar with the matter said. The sale would be part of the company's plan to raise as much as 3.3 billion euros ($4.5 billion) in Europe, according to one of the people, who declined to be identified because details of the plan aren't public. Spokesmen for Commerzbank and GM declined to comment.

Short Interest

The number of shares borrowed and sold short on the New York Stock Exchange jumped to 16.1 billion on March 13, the most since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, NYSE Euronext reported earlier this week.

The so-called short interest was boosted by an almost fivefold increase in bets against Citigroup Inc. between Feb. 27 and March 13 as speculators sold its common stock short and purchased its convertible securities before they are eligible to swap. Shares of the New York-based bank have rallied 75 percent since Feb. 27.

The S&P 500 is still down 9.7 percent this year after tumbling 38 percent in 2008, its worst annual return since the Great Depression. The MSCI World has dropped 10 percent in 2009 after last year's 42 percent plunge, the biggest since the index was created in 1970.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net .

Market is lacklusture today. Low volume due to holiday of Gudi Padwa.
Sensex taking breather and Monday will be crucial day to decide the
trend. Traders are waiting on side line shorts are covered longs not
yet built so let us wait n watch who takes control of the market,
bulls or bears?

Sensex

Sensex daily chart shows head and shoulder and if market holds or
rises it can go up to 11000 from here. Buy on dips for long term
investment or even buy for short or medium term.

Good morning

Hi friends,

Sorry I could not write the blog yesterday for personal reasons.
Market rose very high yesterday and may rise further based on global
cues. But it is at strong resistance level and also in overbought zone
so one must be careful trading. Let's wait for market opening.

Jagruti.

U.S. Stocks Rally, Extend S&P 500's Best Monthly Gain Since '87

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose, extending the best monthly rally since 1987 for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, as unexpected growth in durable-goods orders and new-home sales spurred speculation the economy is stabilizing.

General Electric Co., Bank of America Corp. and Alcoa Inc. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a five-week high as the government reported a 3.4 percent increase in demand for longer lasting products such as refrigerators, airplanes and computer chips and a 4.7 percent gain in new-home purchases. CB Richard Ellis Group Inc., the largest property broker, surged 58 percent as lenders relaxed debt requirements.

The S&P 500 added 2 percent to 822.37 at 12:02 p.m. in New York and has jumped almost 12 percent in March. The Dow gained 158.66 points, or 2.1 percent, to 7,818.63. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased 1.8 percent to 1,543.13. Seven stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange.

"This could be the beginning of an improvement," said Charles Smith, the Pittsburgh-based manager of $700 million including the Fort Pitt Capital Total Return Fund, which beat 78 percent of its peers last year. "The market is essentially saying, 'Now we have an idea that we've already seen the worst rate of change in GDP.'"

The S&P 500 erased yesterday's decline, which was spurred when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner proposed tighter regulations on the financial industry. The benchmark U.S. stock index is up 21 percent since March 9 amid speculation the government's plan to help investors buy toxic assets will revive credit markets.

Bonds Slump

Treasury notes declined for a fifth day as a U.K. government debt auction failed and the U.S. prepared to sell $34 billion in five-year notes, raising concern record amounts of government bonds will overwhelm demand. The last time the U.K. was unable to attract enough investors was in 2002 when it tried to sell 30-year inflation-protected bonds. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index rose less than 0.1 percent, trailing a 0.7 percent advance in the Dow Jones Stoxx 600, Europe's regional benchmark index.

GE, the biggest maker of power-plant turbines, jet engines, locomotives and medical-imagining equipment, climbed 4.8 percent to $10.91. The increase in durable goods orders was the biggest gain in more than a year and the first in seven months, the Commerce Department said. The increase followed a 7.3 percent decrease in January that was larger than previously estimated.

Bank of America, the largest U.S. bank by assets, rallied 8.9 percent to $7.86. Alcoa, the nation's biggest aluminum producer, jumped 7.9 percent to $7.89.

A gauge of homebuilders in S&P indexes added 9.3 percent as all 13 companies advanced, led by rallies of more than 16 percent in M/I Homes Inc. and Standard Pacific Corp. Purchases of new homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose in February from a record low as plummeting prices and cheaper mortgage rates lured some buyers. Sales increased to an annual pace of 337,000 after a 322,000 rate in January, the Commerce Department said.

Economy Watch

Combined with reports showing improvements in retail sales, residential construction and home resales, the figures indicate the economy is improving after shrinking 6.2 percent last quarter, the fastest pace in a quarter century.

A measure of S&P 500 financial stocks climbed 4.6 percent, the most among 10 industries. Wells Fargo & Co., the biggest West Coast bank, increased 9.2 percent to $16.93. President Barack Obama scaled back criticism of Wall Street in a speech last night by saying lawmakers and the public shouldn't vilify those who try to reap rewards in the free-market system.

The president plans to introduce new rules this week to protect consumers and investors against financial fraud, aiming to stamp out practices that helped cause the mortgage-market crisis. The administration will also release proposed legislation that gives the Treasury and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. power to take over failing financial institutions and wind them down, Geithner said in prepared remarks to a conference in New York.

CB Richard Ellis Rallies

CB Richard Ellis posted the S&P 500's steepest gain, jumping 58 percent to $4.73. The shares were raised to "overweight" at JPMorgan Chase following the approval by lenders to amend its credit facility, easing covenants in exchange for higher financing costs.

PepsiCo Inc. rose 1.9 percent to $52.49. The world's biggest snack-food maker was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at UBS AG, which cited "earnings and investment flexibility."

Hewlett-Packard Co. added 2.6 percent to $31.40. The world's largest personal-computer maker was rated "outperform" in new coverage at RBC Capital Markets.

"Investors will benefit from HP's diverse revenue portfolio, recurring book of business, stronger margin profile and solid management team," the brokerage wrote in a report.

The gain in stocks came even as JPMorgan cut its earnings estimates for S&P 500 companies as the recession worsened in recent weeks. Average earnings per share will be $57 this year compared with a previous forecast of $65, strategist Thomas Lee wrote in a report today. The firm's prediction is more optimistic than the average forecast of $47.45 a share compiled from a Bloomberg survey of Wall Street strategists.

Earnings Watch

"Achieving our 2009 EPS estimate is almost entirely dependent on financials," New York-based Lee wrote in a report released today.

He joins Barclays Capital's Barry Knapp, who reduced his earnings projection to $41 a share, down from a November forecast for $46, earlier this week.

The S&P 500 jumped 7.1 percent on March 23, its steepest gain since October, on speculation the U.S. plan to finance purchases of toxic assets will spur growth.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net .

End of the day

Market has ended on a very good note today. It should sustain for a
few days. Tomorrow is the end of the series of march F & O. Friday
close will be crucial to take view on the market. One can trade long
in intraday and take advantage of this rally which has steam yet.
Market is trading in overbought zone and at resistance level so
traders should be very cautious in taking position.

Buy

Suzlon
Reliance
Axis
Rel petro
Lanco infra

Buy

Voltas, rel infra. India cement

Tata power

Buy at current level

Buy

IDFC, Rel com

Buy today sell later

Bombay dyeing
Sterlite
PNB

HDIL

Buy cmp 80.70

Intraday

Buy lt, icici, jindal steel n power

Strictly intraday

Buy reliance pack, unitech, axis bank, united spirits.

Good morning

Market is extremely volatile. Short ONGC, Tata motors, Maruti. Avoid
going long.

Infosys

Based on this news infosys will have tough time in our market too. Go short on infy. 

Infosys Falls Most in 2 Weeks as Analyst Sees Revenue Shortfall

March 24 (Bloomberg) -- Infosys Technologies Ltd., India's second-largest computer services provider, fell the most in two weeks in New York after Susquenhanna Financial Group downgraded the stock and predicted revenue may not meet estimates this year.

Analyst James Friedman said that Infosys may report a "revenue shortfall" in 2009 because of declining contributions from its biggest customers. Revenue from the company's biggest client may decline as much as 20 percent this year, he wrote.

He downgraded the stock to "negative" from "neutral."

Infosys American depositary receipts slid 4.8 percent to $26.30 at 3:41 p.m. in Nasdaq composite trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Allen Wan in New York at awan3@bloomberg.net

Good night

The market today closed at the lowest point of the day. It has
declined from the overbought position. Stockastics indicators are lead
indicators which most of the time predict the right move. According to
the said indicator , market will have a sharp downside up to sensex
8050.
As market did not go up to nifty 3100 and above, we still have to wait
for another strong upmove before entering the expected bull phase.

Let's wait for cues from US markets , which are most likely to close
in red as per Dow's stockastics.

We will meet at the market opening and decide what to short sell or buy.

Good night,

Jagruti.

Metals

Sell tata steel & SAIL

Reliance infra, rel cap., maruti

Go short at current level.

Book profit in longs

Market selling off.

Everonn system , bajaj auto

Buy at current price.

Cairn ind

Buy at cmp 195

Great offshore

Buy cmp 246

Intraday

Wipro, rnrl, mah & mah

Infra day

Buy hdfc , icici , hdfc bank, hdil.

Market is not holding. Do not take fresh long positions. Short aban.

Today's pick

Sugar: triveni, balrampur chini
Telecom; bharti, idea
Banking: SBI
Pharma: ranbaxy, sun pharma
Finance: LIC hag fin.
Energy: ntpc, reliance infra.
Voltas also look good.

Logics to believe that we are entering bull phase now.

Read the story and apply your mind. It is worth thinking. 

U.S. Stocks Jump, Capping S&P 500's Best 10-Day Gain Since 1938

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rallied, capping the market's steepest two-week gain since 1938, as investors speculated the Obama administration's plan to rid banks of toxic assets will spur growth and investor Mark Mobius said a new bull market has begun.

Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. both soared at least 19 percent as the U.S. Treasury said it will finance as much as $1 trillion in purchases of distressed assets. Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. jumped more than 6.7 percent after oil rose to an almost four-month high. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index extended its rebound from a 12-year closing low on March 9 to 22 percent as all 10 of its main industry groups advanced.

"You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity," said Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California- based Templeton Asset Management Ltd. "With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back," he said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Hong Kong.

The S&P 500 gained 7.1 percent to 822.92, its biggest increase since Oct. 28. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 497.48 points, or 6.8 percent, to a five-week high of 7,775.86. The MSCI World Index climbed for the ninth time in 10 days, adding 5.4 percent. Twenty-one stocks rose for each that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest rally since at least July 2004.

Public-Private Investment Program

The Treasury's Public-Private Investment Program will use $75 billion to $100 billion from the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program enacted last year, giving the government "purchasing power" of $500 billion. The Treasury said the program may double "over time."

Benchmark indexes extended gains in early trading after an industry report showed home sales unexpectedly increased in February.

The MSCI World, a gauge of 23 developed nations, has added almost 21 percent since March 9 as Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they made money in the first two months of 2009 and the Federal Reserve agreed to buy $300 billion of government bonds to combat the financial crisis.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 23 developing nations gained 5.1 percent today, erasing its 2009 drop. Mobius, who was voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said emerging markets are in "better shape" than developed economies.

'Helluva Rally'

"This is a helluva rally," Myles Zyblock, the Toronto- based chief institutional strategist for RBC Capital Markets, said in a note to investors. The U.S. stock market has moved "through the 50-day moving average and then the 800 area like a hot knife through butter."

Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index gained 3 percent, pushing its rebound from a 12-year low on March 9 to almost 13 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 3.4 percent.

The yen and dollar fell against most major counterparts on speculation the Treasury's plan will reduce demand for the currencies' safety.

Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, surged 26 percent to $7.80. Citigroup, whose biggest shareholder may soon be U.S. taxpayers, soared 19 percent to $3.13. JPMorgan added 25 percent to $28.86. The three banks led gains in all 30 Dow average companies.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany's largest bank, rose 8.5 percent to 30.70 euros. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest publicly traded bank, advanced 4.7 percent to 512 yen.

Geithner's Plan

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner has crafted an approach to spur investment funds to purchase the illiquid securities and loans that have caused credit to dry up. Because the program depends on private investors, it may be months before it's clear if it will work. The plan relies on Federal Reserve financing and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. debt guarantees.

"With the government taking most of the downside, that is basically what's going to entice bids," Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, told Bloomberg Television. "This is a very, very positive thing for the credit markets."

The S&P 500 Financials Index of banks, insurers and investment firms has surged 58 percent from its March 6 low including an 18 percent rally today, its steepest since Nov. 24.

While U.S. bank stocks have climbed this month, bonds of the companies yield 8.55 percentage points more than Treasuries, about the widest in 13 years, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes. The gap between yields of financial institutions' bonds and Treasuries widened even as their shares jumped, suggesting this month's record rally in financial stocks is in jeopardy.

Energy Advance

S&P 500 Energy shares climbed 7.8 percent collectively, the group's steepest advance in four months.

Exxon Mobil, the largest U.S. oil company, jumped $4.44, or 6.7 percent, to $70.53. Chevron, the second-biggest, added $4.44, or 6.9 percent, to $69.15.

Crude oil for May delivery rose $1.73 to $53.80 a barrel in New York as the rally in stocks spurred speculation that fuel use will rebound.

Petro-Canada added 20 percent to C$35.70 in Toronto after Suncor Energy Inc. agreed to buy the company in an all-share transaction to gain assets in the North Sea, North Africa and Latin America. The deal was valued at C$19.3 billion ($15.6 billion), a record for a Canadian energy company.

Takeovers

The deal adds to a series of takeovers this year, including Merck & Co.'s bid for Schering-Plough Corp., Pfizer Inc.'s offer for Wyeth and Agrium Inc.'s pursuit of CF Industries Holdings Inc. CF today told shareholders to reject Agrium's buyout terms and sweetened its own proposal for rival fertilizer maker Terra Industries Inc.

Tiffany & Co. jumped 16 percent to $23.37, the biggest gain since October. The world's second-largest luxury-jewelry retailer reported fourth-quarter profit excluding some items of 85 cents a share, beating the average analyst estimate by 8.1 percent.

"You want to be in the market," David Katz, who oversees $1 billion as chief investment officer of Matrix Asset Advisors, told Bloomberg Radio. "There are a lot of great businesses that could be 100 to 200 percent higher over the next one to two years."

Walgreen, GE

Walgreen Co. rose 9.4 percent, the most since October, to $26.58. The second-largest U.S. drugstore chain reported quarterly profit and sales that beat the average estimate from analysts surveyed by Bloomberg after the company lowered prices on many non-drug products to lure consumers.

General Electric Co. gained 9.3 percent to $10.43 even after the owner of GE Capital and NBC Universal was downgraded two levels to Aa2 at Moody's Investors Service, losing its Aaa rating for the first time in four decades. S&P analysts cut GE's ratings on March 12.

Benchmark indexes extended gains as U.S. sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly climbed in February after record foreclosures brought bargain hunters into the market to take advantage of lower prices. Purchases increased 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 4.72 million from 4.49 million in January, the National Association of Realtors said.

Home Depot Inc., the world's largest home-improvement retailer, rose 4.9 percent to $23.25.

The S&P 500 is still down 47 percent from its October 2007 record and the MSCI World is lower by 51 percent from its peak the same month after credit-related losses at financial firms reached $1.2 trillion and the U.S. economy contracted by the most in 26 years last quarter.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net

Good morning

Market seems to have given break out yesterday. It is history that
during the election times market rallies.Looking at the global cues
this rally will extend till nifty 3100. We should not be surprised if
there is trend reversal after that rally. Long term investor should
not miss the bus, they should keep investing part by part their fund
on every dips. In a day or two I will give you the good scrips which
are hammered maximum like HDIL, Unitech , Suzlon, DLF etc. Investor
can keep eye on those shares and start investing for long term.

See you on opening the market , it should be a happy day too.

Jagruti.

Mobius Says Bull Rally Has Begun as Emerging Markets Erase Loss

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said the next "bull-market" rally in developing- nation equities has begun as stocks surged from Shanghai to Moscow on the U.S. Treasury's plan to revive the banking system.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed the most in more than two weeks, erasing losses for 2009, on U.S. plans to buy as much as $1 trillion of toxic assets. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose for a sixth day, the longest winning stretch in more than 17 months, as the government encouraged mergers in the auto and steel industries. Russia's Micex jumped 4.9 percent after Citigroup Inc. said the stocks are "dirt cheap."

"You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity," Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging-market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California-based Templeton, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. "With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back."

The 72-year old investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said there are bargains in every emerging market after the MSCI benchmark fell 57 percent from its October 2007 peak on concern the global economy will contract for the first time since World War II.

The global benchmark climbed 3.8 percent at 1:49 p.m. in London, putting the index on course for a 2009 gain for the first time since Jan. 9.

'Cash Rich' Bargains

Templeton is looking for companies that are "cash-rich," have low debt and higher dividend yields, or those that can invest for future growth yet have cash left to pay shareholders, Mobius said. He cited Hong Kong's Denway Motors Ltd., PTT Plc in Thailand, Indonesia's Bank Central Asia, ICICI Bank Ltd. in India, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

Citigroup analysts Markus Rosgen and Elaine Chu are among strategists who said recent Asian stock gains are a temporary "bear-market rally" because valuations have yet to plumb the lows seen in past recessions. Tal Eloya of Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund company, said today he's skeptical of predictions about the timing of the market cycle.

"No one can call the bottom in the stock market," Eloya, a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, said in a briefing in Seoul.

"You are going to see a lot of bouncing off the bottom because there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market," Mobius said. "But I have a feeling we're at the bottom and now we're building a base for the next bull market."

Mobius correctly predicted in December that emerging markets will rebound before developed nations. In 2006, he was named one of the "Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People" by Asiamoney magazine.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net .

Rel Capital

Buy cmp 358

Indian Stocks Climb to Highest in a Month; ICICI, Infosys Gain

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks rose, with the benchmark index set to climb to its highest in more than a month, on optimism U.S. stimulus measures will help ease the credit crisis and revive global economic growth.

ICICI Bank Ltd., the nation's second-largest lender, rose 2.3 percent. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India's largest software developer, gained 2.8 percent to its highest in more than a month before a U.S. Treasury announcement today of plans to rid banks of toxic assets.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 173.39, or 1.9 percent, to 9,140.07 as of 10:10 a.m. local time, set for its highest since Feb. 16. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 55.80, or 2 percent, to 2,862.85. The BSE 200 Index added 1.8 percent to 1,071.94. S&P CNX Nifty futures for March delivery added 2.2 percent to 2,863.90.

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.4 percent. The U.S. will this week outline regulatory changes aimed at avoiding a repeat of the financial crisis, an administration official said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote in a Wall Street Journal article the U.S. will establish an investment program that may provide financing of as much as $1 trillion to purchase real estate-related assets from banks and securities "from the broader market."

ICICI added 2.3 percent to 330.55 rupees. Tata Consultancy Services advanced 2.8 percent to 524 rupees, its highest since Feb. 10. Infosys Technologies Ltd., the No. 2 software developer, added 1.4 percent to 1,314.15 rupees. India's software exporters derive more than half their revenue from the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net

Reliance Proposes Higher Marketing Margin in Gas-Sale Accords

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Reliance Industries Ltd., India's most valuable company, has proposed to increase the marketing margin of gas to be sold to fertilizer makers, an official of the industry grouping said.

The margin has been increased to 15 cents per million British thermal units in the revised draft contract from 12 cents per million Btu earlier, Satish Chander, director general of the Fertilizer Association of India, said by telephone from New Delhi today.

"We are hoping the marketing margin will be brought down as there doesn't seem to be any reason for increasing it," Chander said.

Fuel-starved fertilizer makers, which India has designated priority customers for gas, haven't been able to reach agreement with Reliance on the supply of the fuel. The price of gas was set by the government at $4.2 per million Btu, excluding taxes and transportation costs, for crude oil equal to or more than $60 a barrel, the Oil Ministry said Dec. 4.

Reliance declined to answer e-mailed questions.

Pending issues, including supply-related liability, may be resolved this week, Chander and other officials said.

The fuel-supply clauses weren't changed in the draft agreement sent to fertilizer makers last week, which states that Mumbai-based Reliance won't be liable for supply disruptions and that buyers must pay for committed purchases even if they don't take the gas, Chander said.

"Let's just say we are still resolving that issue and we hope to be ready to sign the contracts this week," Chander said. "Reliance has told us gas supplies will start from around the second week of April. Once supplies start, plants can start operating at higher capacities."

Rupee Payment

The explorer has agreed to let fertilizer companies, including Tata Chemicals Ltd. and Nagarjuna Fertilizers & Chemicals Ltd., pay for gas in Indian rupees. Reliance will charge the companies in dollars and payments will be made in rupees at the exchange rate prevalent on that day, Chander said.

"The issues are nearly resolved," Oil Secretary R.S. Pandey, the senior-most bureaucrat in the Oil Ministry, said by telephone from New Delhi today. "The contracts will probably be signed this week."

At its peak, output from Reliance's KG-D6 field will double the availability of gas in the country. Fertilizer makers and power plants currently use more expensive naphtha and imported liquefied natural gas as fuel.

"The fertilizer sector will sign an agreement this week for buying a total of about 15 million standard cubic meters a day," U.S. Jha, chairman of Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd., said by telephone from Mumbai today. "This will be a five-year contract."

The gas sale and purchase agreement will be signed with Reliance, Jha said. The gas transportation accord will be signed with Reliance Gas Transmission Infrastructure Ltd., Reliance's cross-country pipeline unit, while another agreement will be signed with GAIL India Ltd. to supply the gas to the fertilizer plants, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Rakteem Katakey in New Delhi at rkatakey@bloomberg.net Archana Chaudhary in Mumbai at achaudhary2@bloomberg.net .

Acc

Buy at 561

Bharti airtel

Buy at market price

Ranbaxy

Buy at cmp 156 target 163.

Tata power, cairn India

Buy at cmp.

Short covering

The march series will end on Thursday, shorts are being covered and
market is being raised.

Buy

Ingersoll, aptech

'Bull-Market' Has Begun, Templeton's Mark Mobius Says

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- The next "bull-market" rally has begun and there are bargains in every emerging market, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said, refuting predictions that the equities meltdown will continue.

"You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity," said Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets at San Mateo, California-based Templeton. "With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back."

Citigroup Inc.'s analysts Markus Rosgen and Elaine Chu are among strategists who describe recent Asian stock gains as a temporary "bear-market rally." They remain "skeptical" because valuations have yet to plumb the lows seen in past recessions, they said in a report today.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has jumped 23 percent since reaching a four-year low on Oct. 27, outperforming the 2.5 percent drop in the MSCI World Index and 9.5 percent decline in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. Emerging markets made up the 10 best-performing stock benchmark indexes this year, led by the 26 percent gain for China's Shanghai Composite Index.

"You are going to see a lot of bouncing off the bottom because there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market," Mobius, 72, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Hong Kong. "But I have a feeling we're at the bottom and now we're building a base for the next bull market."

'Top Ten'

Mobius correctly predicted in December that emerging markets will rebound before developed nations. In 1999, he was voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" in a survey by the Carson Group, and in 2006 he was included in the "Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People" by Asiamoney magazine.

Templeton is finding "bargains" in every emerging market, which are in "better shape" than developed economies, Mobius said. The fund is looking for companies that are "cash-rich," have low debt and higher dividend yields, or those that can invest for future growth yet have cash left to pay shareholders, he said.

Investors who poured $502 million into Asian equity funds over the past two weeks may lose out once the "bear market rally" falters, Citigroup said today in a note, citing a 30 percent drop after an initial rebound in the 1997 slump.

Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund company, is among the skeptics on predictions about the timing of the market cycle.

'No Crystal Ball'

"No one can call the bottom in the stock market. No one managed to do it. We can't do it. We don't have a crystal ball," Tal Eloya, a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, said in a briefing in Seoul today. "We have to think long term and invest over a long-term horizon."

Mobius's views that stocks will rally are shared by investor Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term "emerging markets."

"Relative to potential sustainable growth and quality, emerging markets today are cheaper than I have seen them at any time since I started to invest" 30 years ago, van Agtmael, who oversees about $8.6 billion as chairman and chief investment officer at Emerging Markets Management LLC, said in a phone interview March 19. "Things have gone too far down."

Asian stock market valuations outside of Japan fell to 0.9 times book value during the 1975 and 1982 recessions, according to Citigroup. The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index is now valued at 1.3 times book value.

Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Cia. Vale do Rio Doce, the world's biggest iron-ore producer, and Chinese oil producer PetroChina Co. are among the top holdings of Mobius's Templeton Emerging Markets Trust.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net Paul Gordon in Hong Kong at Pgordon6@bloomberg.net

Good morning

Market will face strong resistance at sensex 9213. Intraday position
will be risky. If it breaks this resistance it will rise up to 9450.

HDFC
Rel petro good.

Asian Stocks Advance to Six-Week High on Government Stimulus

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rose, driving a regional benchmark index to a six-week high, on optimism governments will succeed in efforts to revive lending, easing the worst slump since the Great Depression. U.S. futures gained.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. surged 6.1 percent in Tokyo, pacing gains among financial companies, before a U.S. Treasury announcement today of plans to rid banks of toxic assets. Uny Co., a Japanese department store operator, jumped 4.6 percent after Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano said the economy may need 20 trillion yen ($207 billion) in new stimulus. Angang Steel Co. gained 2.5 percent in Shenzhen, southern China, as the government moved to encourage mergers in the industry.

"Stocks are building a base for the next bull market," Mark Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging- market assets at Templeton Asset Management Ltd, said in Hong Kong today. The firm is finding "bargains" in every emerging market, he said.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 3.1 percent to 82.01 at 1:06 p.m. in Tokyo, set to close at the highest since Feb. 11. The measure extended last week's 6.4 percent increase, which was the most since November. The gauge has surged 16 percent from a five-year low reached on March 9 amid speculation the worst of the financial crisis is over.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average jumped 3 percent to 8,186.21, following a March 20 holiday. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index added 2.1 percent, while South Korea's Kospi Index rose 2.4 percent. All markets gained except Vietnam and New Zealand.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's biggest mining company, climbed 3.7 percent in Sydney on higher oil and copper prices. Samsung Electronics Co. added 1.9 percent in Seoul as Goldman, Sachs & Co. said the company's earnings will recover faster than at its rivals. NSK Ltd., a Japanese bearing maker, slipped 2.8 percent after forecasting a full-year net loss.

Regulatory Changes

Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 1.4 percent. The gauge slid 2 percent on March 20 as analysts cut earnings estimates for General Electric Co.

Stocks worldwide advanced last week, lifting the MSCI World Index by 4.4 percent, as the U.S. and Japan announced more plans to bolster their financial systems and as Standard Chartered Plc became the latest lender to say it had a strong start to 2009.

The U.S. will this week outline regulatory changes aimed at avoiding a repeat of the financial crisis, an administration official said. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wrote in a Wall Street Journal article the U.S. will establish an investment program that may provide financing of as much as $1 trillion to purchase real estate-related assets from banks and securities "from the broader market."

Mitsubishi UFJ, Japan's biggest publicly traded bank, rose 6.1 percent to 519 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-largest publicly traded bank, gained 5.7 percent to 221 yen. Uny jumped 4.6 percent to 732 yen.

Mergers, Acquisitions

Japan's Yosano said yesterday that a new stimulus package would require trillions of yen and that a figure of 20 trillion yen ($209 billion) is "not out of line."

An index of finance stocks on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 3.8 percent, the most of 10 industry groups. The finance gauge is the worst performer in the past 12 months, as credit- related losses worldwide swelled to more than $1.2 trillion.

"There are glimmers of hope that a cataclysmic-type outcome won't eventuate," said Tim Schroeders, who helps manage about $2.6 billion at Pengana Capital Ltd. in Melbourne. "There are signs that in the banking system things are starting to bottom out, but further work needs to be done."

Angang Steel, China's second-largest steelmaker, advanced 2.5 percent to 8.48 yuan. Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., which is owned by China's largest producer, added 1.4 percent to 5.79 yuan. SAIC Motor Co., the nation's biggest domestic carmaker, advanced 1.7 percent to 9.70 yuan.

Declining Valuations

China plans to create five steelmakers accounting for more than 45 percent of output within three years and the nation's 15 biggest automakers will be consolidated into 10 companies, the State Council, or the cabinet, said in a statement on March 20. Taxes on steel imports and exports will be also reviewed.

The country's stimulus spending may add as much as 1.9 percentage points to economic expansion and help the government achieve its growth target this year, to the State Council's research group said yesterday.

The MSCI Asia Pacific has fallen 40 percent in the past year as the global recession pummeled earnings at companies including BHP and Samsung. Stocks on the gauge are trading at an average 1.09 times book value on March 9, having averaged 1.8 times in the past five years, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

"Whilst markets are cheap on any historical standard for long-term investors, we still see uncertainties, and I don't think we are out of the woods yet," Tahnoon Pasha, regional head of equities at MFC Global Investment Management (Asia), which oversees $3 billion, said in a March 20 interview.

Oil, Copper Advance

BHP, Australia's largest oil producer, climbed 3.7 percent to A$33.37. KNM Group Bhd., a Malaysian oil and gas services provider, jumped 6.9 percent to 38.5 sen. Cnooc Ltd., China's largest offshore oil producer, surged 6 percent to HK$7.98.

Crude oil for May delivery added as much as 1.6 percent to $52.90 a barrel today in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Copper rose as much as 1 percent.

Samsung Electronics, the world's biggest computer-memory maker, gained 1.9 percent to 552,000 won. The stock was rated "neutral" in new coverage at Goldman Sachs, which said the company's technological and financial edge will spur a faster earnings recovery than at its competitors.

NSK slipped 2.6 percent to 378 yen. The company on March 19 cut its forecast for the year ending March 31 to a net loss of 4 billion yen ($42 million), from 12 billion yen in profit. It cited production cuts at automakers.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net .

India's Stocks Fall for First Day in Three; Banks Lead Declines

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- India's benchmark stock index fell for the first day in three, led by ICICI Bank Ltd. and other financial services companies, on concern bad debts may rise, countering gains by commodity suppliers.

ICICI Bank, the nation's second-largest, dropped 4.4 percent, while bigger rival State Bank of India retreated 1.5 percent. Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. climbed 1.1 percent, leading advances by commodity producers after metals gained.

"It's very difficult to ascertain non-performing assets at banks, so that uncertainty is raising concern on the quality of their loans," said R.K. Gupta, managing director of Taurus Asset Management Co. in New Delhi.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 35.07, or 0.4 percent, to 8,966.68. The measure has dropped 7.1 percent so far this year, set for its fifth quarterly retreat, the longest losing streak in more than seven years.

The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange was unchanged at 2,807.05. The BSE 200 Index declined 0.3 percent to 1,053.03. Nifty futures for March delivery were little changed at 2801.65.

ICICI dropped 4.4 percent to 323.50 rupees. The bank had its share-price target reduced 10 percent at Macquarie Group Ltd., citing increased risk related to loan delinquencies. State Bank of India, the country's largest, declined 1.5 percent to 954.70 rupees. Axis Bank Ltd. slid 4.4 percent to 342.40 rupees.

Investors are concerned non-performing loans at banks and "asset quality" may deteriorate, Aditya Singhania, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group, said in a note dated yesterday.

Sterlite gained 1.1 percent to 316.80 rupees. Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest aluminum producer, rose 5.7 percent to 47.65 rupees. Tata Steel Ltd., the nation's largest producer of the alloy, added 1.9 percent to 176.25 rupees.

A measure of six metals traded in London jumped 5.6 percent yesterday, while gold futures climbed in New York.

The following shares were among the most active on the exchange:

Akruti City Ltd. (AKCL IN) fell by a record 27 percent to 1,610.80 rupees. The National Stock Exchange will remove the nation's second-largest developer by market value from its derivatives segment by the end of this month. Trading in futures and options of the Mumbai-based company will be halted after March 26, the exchange said on its Web site yesterday, without providing a reason for the exclusion.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (DRRD IN) fell 3.2 percent to 422.45 rupees. The nation's second-biggest drugmaker said yesterday it will exit some of the small distributor-driven generics markets, with an impact of less than 1 percent on revenue.

JM Financial Ltd. (JM IN) rose 10 percent to 22.10 rupees, after about 2.4 million shares changed hands in two transactions.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT IN) dropped 4 percent to 585.10 rupees. India's biggest engineering firm will pay four years of pending dividends to Grasim Industries Ltd. (GRASIM IN), the Business Standard reported, citing an order by the Bombay High Court. Grasim will receive 120 million rupees ($2.3 million) as dividends for the 3.85 million shares it holds in Larsen, and interest at the rate of 18 percent per annum, the newspaper said. Grasim added 0.2 percent to 1,464.60 rupees.

To contact the reporters on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net

Buy for short term

Mcleod russel cmp54

Sell

Maruti, tata motors

Buy

Guj Nre Coke , RNRL , ONGC

Oil Set for Fifth Week of Gains on U.S. Growth Plan, Dollar

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is poised to gain for a fifth week, the longest winning streak in 11 months, on the Federal Reserve's plan to end the worst global recession in 60 years by spending $1 trillion buying back debt.

Oil climbed above $50 a barrel yesterday to close at a three-month high after the Fed said it was seeking to purchase U.S. Treasuries, mortgage-backed bonds and other debt. Commodities surged the most this year as the dollar weakened against the euro. Gold and platinum are set for their first weekly gain in a month.

"The dollar and equities markets certainly seem to be flowing positively into oil," said Mark Pervan, senior commodity strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. in Melbourne. "There's a lot of sidelined interest in commodities markets as people try to pick the bottom."

Crude oil for April delivery fell 49 cents to $51.12 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in after-hours electronic trading at 1:33 p.m. in Singapore. Oil is up 10 percent this week, set for its longest series of weekly gains since April 2008.

Yesterday, futures surged $3.47 to $51.61 a barrel, the highest settlement since Nov. 28. The April contract expires at the close today. The more-active May contract slipped 37 cents to $51.67 a barrel in after-hours trading after jumping 6.4 percent yesterday.

Brent crude oil for May settlement was at $50.38 a barrel, down 29 cents, at 1:31 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday the contract jumped 6.3 percent to $50.67 on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, the highest close since Nov. 28.

OPEC, Dollar

Crude has gained 14 percent so far this year as record production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries started to reduce a supply glut caused by the worst economic crisis since World War II. Prices are down 65 percent from July's record of $147.27 a barrel.

OPEC will cut crude oil shipments 3.3 percent in the four weeks ending April 4 as producers seek to adhere to quotas, tanker-tracker Oil Movements said yesterday. The group decided at a March 15 meeting to hold output targets steady, pledging to tighten compliance with quotas.

OPEC members "have been rewarded now with a higher price," Daniel Yergin, chairman of Cambridge Energy Research Associates, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview.

Dollar Slide

The trade-weighted Dollar Index, which tracks the currency's performance against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, slid yesterday for an eighth day, the longest stretch in a year.

The dollar was down 1.4 percent to $1.3667 per euro from $1.3474 March 18.

The decline in the value of the U.S. currency, which helped push oil to the July record, is "not yet" on the agenda of OPEC's next meeting on May 28, the group's president, Jose Maria Botelho de Vasconcelos, said yesterday.

Gold for immediate delivery fell 0.8 percent to $952.45 an ounce at 9 a.m. in Singapore after touching $961.51 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 27. Silver fell 0.5 percent to $13.525. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 prices rose 11.36, or 5.3 percent, to 225.30 yesterday, the highest since Jan. 26.

Oil may decline next week on speculation that U.S. oil and fuel inventories will increase because the recession has curbed demand and as a "fragile" stock market rally loses steam.

Seventeen of 33 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 52 percent, said futures will fall through March 27. Twelve respondents, or 36 percent, forecast oil prices will increase and four said that there will be little change.

To contact the reporters on this story: Angela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net .

Akruti City, Dr. Reddy's, Larsen, Satyam: India Equity Preview

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in India trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses and share prices are as of yesterday's close.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, advanced 25.07, or 0.3 percent, to 9,001.75. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange rose 0.5 percent to 2,807.15. The BSE 200 Index added 0.3 percent to 1,056.64. SGX Nifty futures for March delivery fell 0.8 percent to 2,777.5 at 11:08 a.m. in Singapore today.

Akruti City Ltd. (AKCL IN): The National Stock Exchange will remove the nation's second-largest developer by market value from its derivatives segment by the end of this month. Trading in futures and options of the Mumbai-based company will be halted after March 26, the day contracts for April and May expire, the exchange said on its Web site yesterday, without providing a reason for the exclusion. The shares rose 10 percent to 2,210.85 rupees.

Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (DRRD IN): The nation's second-biggest drugmaker said yesterday it will exit some of the small distributor-driven generics markets, with an impact of less than 1 percent on revenue. Dr. Reddy's fell 0.1 percent to 436.4 rupees.

Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT IN): India's biggest engineering firm will pay four years of pending dividends to Grasim Industries Ltd., the Business Standard reported, citing an order by the Bombay High Court. Grasim will receive 120 million rupees ($2.3 million) as dividends for the 3.85 million shares it holds in Larsen, and interest at the rate of 18 percent per annum, the newspaper said. Larsen fell 4.1 percent to 609.4 rupees, while Grasim (GRASIM IN) retreated 0.6 percent to 1,461.25 rupees.

Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL IN): India's biggest company by market value plans to enlist a partner for a planned new venture for its fuel operations, the Economic Times reported, citing a person familiar with the matter. Indian Oil Corp. and the Indian division of Royal Dutch Shell Plc are frontrunners to buy the 50 percent stake, the Economic Times said. Reliance rose 1.1 percent to 1,345.7 rupees.

Satyam Computer Services Ltd. (SCS IN): The Indian software maker plans to restate the past seven years' financial reports by cutting sales, India's Economic Times said. The restatement may reduce the company's reported revenue by at least 10 percent to 15 percent and may "have a significant impact" on Satyam's valuation for its bidders, the report said, without saying where it got the information. Satyam rose 1.8 percent to 44.5 rupees.

Tata Motors Ltd. (TTMT IN): The nation's biggest truck- maker will limit production of Nano, the world's cheapest car, to 40,000 units this year, the Financial Times reported, without saying where it got the information. The Indian carmaker was forced to move the site of the car's production to an existing facility because of protests and its new factory will not be in operation until 2010, the newspaper said. Tata Motors fell 2.7 percent to 171.7 rupees.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net

Indian Stocks Fall, Snapping Two-Day Advance; Banks Decline

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- India's benchmark stock index fell, snapping a two-day, 1.6 percent advance. ICICI Bank Ltd. led lenders lower on concern rising bad loans will dent earnings.

ICICI, the nation's second-largest lender, fell 3.1 percent. Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd. climbed 1.4 percent, as commodity producers rose after metal prices gained.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 93.56, or 1 percent, to 8,908.19 as of 10:40 a.m. local time. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange slid 0.8 percent to 2,783.75. The BSE 200 Index declined 0.8 percent to 1,047.98. Nifty futures for March delivery fell 0.9 percent to 2,777.

Investors are concerned about non-performing loans at banks and "asset quality," Aditya Singhania, an analyst at Credit Suisse Group, said in a note to clients.

ICICI dropped 3.1 percent to 327.35 rupees. HDFC Bank Ltd., the No. 3 lender, slid 2 percent to 815.50 rupees. State Bank of India, the country's largest, declined 1.9 percent to 949.90 rupees.

Sterlite gained 1.4 percent to 317.85 rupees. Hindalco Industries Ltd., India's biggest aluminum producer, jumped 3.6 percent to 46.70 rupees. Tata Steel Ltd., the nation's largest producer of the alloy, added 2.5 percent to 177.20 rupees.

A measure of six metals traded in London jumped 5.6 percent yesterday, while gold futures climbed in New York.

To contact the reporters on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net

India Output May Signal Stock 'Bottom,' JPMorgan Says

March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks may "bottom" in the middle of the year after the slump in industrial production ends, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.

Output typically troughs two to four months before India's equity markets, JPMorgan analysts led by Bharat Iyer wrote in a report dated yesterday. Production may drop 3 percent over March and April before recovering, they said.

The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index has dropped 7.5 percent this year, set for its fifth quarterly decline, as the global financial crisis and recession weighed on the corporate earnings outlook. In the last economic cycle, industrial production started recovering in May 2001 while equity markets reached a bottom in September that year, JPMorgan said.

"The above analysis would suggest that the equity markets could bottom out over June to July," the analysts wrote. "This would also be a decisive phase for the equity markets as there should be clarity by then on the results of the national elections and the progress of the monsoon and its seasonal impact on the economy."

The Sensex fell 0.8 percent to 8,928.87 at 12:06 p.m. local time, the first drop in three days.

Output at factories, utilities and mines dropped 0.5 percent in January from a year earlier, declining for the third time in four months, the Central Statistical Organization said on March 12. Economists had expected a 0.9 percent contraction.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has reduced taxes on consumer products and the central bank slashed interest rates to a record low to revive an economy that some analysts fear may slow further as elections in April and May stymie policymaking in the world's biggest democracy.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net

Strictly intraday

Buy
ONGC
JPHydro

Good morning

Hello,

US market cues are not very good and our bear market rally will also
fizzle out today, it seems. If banks like ICICI, SBI, HDFC start
declining, short them.
Do not go long now. Let's wait for market opening.

Have a nice day,
Jagruti.

India National Exchange to Remove Akruti From Derivatives Trade

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- India's National Stock Exchange will remove Akruti City Ltd., the nation's second-largest developer by market value, from its derivatives segment by end of this month.

Trading in futures and options of the Mumbai-based company will be halted after March 26, the day contracts for April and May expire, the exchange said on its Web site, without providing a reason for the exclusion.

Akruti shares rose 10 percent to 2,210.85 rupees in Mumbai, extending an 11-day rally that more than doubled the company's market value, according to data on the Bloomberg.

OPG Securities Pvt. bought 671,572 shares, or 1 percent of Akruti's equity capital, at 2,172.30 rupees apiece and sold a matching quantity at 2,175.26 rupees each, the Bombay Stock Exchange said on its Web site.

To contact the reporter on this story: Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net .

Buy today sell l8r

Ntpc , India bull, sterlite, Nitin fire.

India Inflation Slows to 2-Decade Low; Gives Scope for Rate Cut

March 19 (Bloomberg) -- India's inflation slowed to a two- decade low, providing room for the central bank to cut interest rates to protect the economy from the global recession.

Wholesale prices rose 0.44 percent in the week to March 7 from a year earlier after gaining 2.43 percent the previous week, the commerce ministry said in New Delhi. That's the lowest inflation rate on record, according to data available since 1990 on Bloomberg. Economists expected an increase of 0.86 percent.

"Inflation will turn negative starting from April and will remain so until the end of 2009," said Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs Inc. in Mumbai. "We expect the Reserve Bank to ease liquidity" to support growth.

The International Monetary Fund said this week India should rely more on monetary policy to support the economy as high public debt makes fiscal efforts difficult. Growth won't be hurt by deflation and any negative trend in prices will not be sustained for long, the finance ministry's top economist Arvind Virmani told Bloomberg News this week.

Governor Duvvuri Subbarao on March 4 cut the Reserve Bank of India's key repurchase rate to an all-time low of 5 percent, having reduced the measure by 400 basis points since October. Still, India has more room to lower rates than other economies, with the Bank of England's benchmark at 0.5 percent and the U.S. Fed's target interest-rate range at 0 percent to 0.25 percent.

Budget Deficit

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's tax cuts and extra spending plans will widen the budget deficit to 6 percent of gross domestic product in the year ending March 31 from a target of 2.5 percent. That will force the government to borrow a record 3.62 trillion rupees ($71 billion) next year. Indian government debt is the equivalent of 80 percent of the nation's GDP.

The global recession has caused a decline in the cost of energy and commodities, slowing inflation across the Asia- Pacific region. Consumer prices in China fell 1.6 percent in February from a year earlier, the first decline since 2002, and wholesale prices in Japan tumbled 1.1 percent in the same month, raising the risk of deflation in the region's biggest economies.

The decline in wholesale-price inflation in India is "good but one should not be euphoric about it as long as consumer- price inflation is still running at above historic levels," Virmani said in an interview on March 18.

India has four separate measures to gauge consumer prices and they haven't moved in tandem with the wholesale price trend. Food prices have about 70 percent weight in India'a consumer price indices.

Consumer Prices

Inflation as measured by the consumer prices paid by industrial workers quickened to 10.45 percent in January, the highest since December 1998. The consumer-price index for farm workers increased 11.62 percent in January from a year earlier, following an 11.14 percent gain in December.

The central bank said this month consumer prices will decline after a lag, without specifying a time frame.

Today's inflation rate may be revised in two months, after the government receives additional price data. The commerce ministry today revised the rate for the week to Jan. 10 to 5.46 percent from 5.60 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Cherian Thomas in New Delhi at cthomas1@bloomberg.net Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at kgoyal @bloomberg.net.

Short sell

Banks, metal
Reliance pack.
Auto.

Voltamp

Buy at cmp 395 or on some decline during the day.

Market selling off

Market will give fall today , don't create long position. Sell sbi,
tata steel, jindal steel n power. Sell metal shares. Buy mind tree on
decline during the day for short term.

Good morning

Hi there,

Looking at global trends and charts of our indices sensex will hold
today.Asian markets show mixed trend. If our market shows decline,
fall will be sharp and big if not today , it will happen tomorrow.
This rally has come nearing it's end.

Small cap , mid cap, FMCG, healthcare , realty will remain good and
hold the market. Large cap and metal may drag the market down.
Trade with extreme care creating long positions.book profits in akruti
city.
Today's pick:
Sell infy,
Sell ONGC
Buy GAIL

More on market opening,
Have a good trading day,

Jagruti.

US markets

This global cue is enough to provide trigger for fall in our market tomorrow. Also as it is trading in overbought zone , it will give sharp decline. 

U.S. Stocks Fall on Concern Fed Will Fail to Boost Confidence

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined from its highest level in almost a month on concern the Federal Reserve's announcement later today will fail to boost confidence in the economy.

Exxon Mobil Corp. slipped 2 percent as oil retreated from a three-month high after inventories grew more than projected. General Mills Inc., the maker of Cheerios and Hamburger Helper, slid 9.4 percent on earnings that trailed analysts' estimates. Sun Microsystems Inc. soared 80 percent, spurring gains in technology shares, as the computer-server maker entered talks to be acquired by International Business Machines Corp.

The S&P 500 declined 0.5 percent to 774.2 at 12:53 p.m. in New York. Energy shares lost 2.2 percent for the steepest drop among 10 groups. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased 82.04 points, or 1.1 percent, to 7,313.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.2 percent to 1,464.32. About four stocks fell for every three that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

"Everybody is waiting on the Fed but we've been waiting since January for more information and we may or may not get it today," said Diane Garnick, who helps oversee $500 billion as an investment strategist at Invesco Ltd. in New York. "The bear market rally is over because the economic data continues to get worse. There is no reason for companies to expand their ability to manufacture more goods."

All Eyes on Fed

Fed policy makers will debate how to provide further stimulus to the shrinking economy, from purchasing more mortgage bonds to buying Treasury securities. They'll also keep the benchmark interest rate as low as zero percent, according to all 71 forecasters in a Bloomberg News survey. The Open Market Committee is scheduled to issue its statement around 2:15 p.m.

Stocks advanced yesterday, erasing more than half the loss in the S&P 500 since President Barack Obama took office Jan. 20, as a report showed an unexpected rebound in homebuilding. The benchmark index for U.S. equities has rallied 15 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 after Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they were profitable in the first two months of the year.

Exxon Mobil lost $1.44 to $67.65, while Chevron Corp. retreated 79 cents to $64.52. Crude fell as much as 4.6 percent to $46.92 a barrel after an Energy Department report showed gains in U.S. inventories that were bigger than analysts had estimated.

General Mills tumbled 9.4 percent to $48.64 after reporting third-quarter profit fell on costs for ingredients and the negative effects of a stronger dollar. Earnings declined to 79 cents a share excluding gains from an insurance settlement and commodity hedging. Analysts anticipated 87 cents, according to the average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

IBM for Sun

IBM slipped 2.6 percent to $90.51, while Sun Micro jumped 80 percent $8.96. IBM is in talks to buy Sun, according to a person familiar with the situation. The purchase would help Armonk, New York-based IBM expand in the market for computer servers, which run Web sites and networks, according to the person, who declined to be identified because the talks are confidential.

Boeing Co. dropped 3.3 percent to $33.32 after International Lease Finance Corp., the largest airplane lessor by fleet value, said manufactures will have to slash production or risk financing jet sales themselves. International Lease Finance, a subsidiary of American International Group Inc., said planemakers will have to reduce output by 35 percent from mid- 2010.

Citigroup Rallies

Citigroup Inc. rallied 17 percent to $2.93 after S&P affirmed its AAA rating on Citi Swapco Inc., which serves as an intermediary for derivatives trades. The shares also gained after the New York Post reported that "observers say" Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit may find it harder to keep his job because nominees to the company's board, including former US Bancorp CEO Jerry A. Grundhofer, have experience running banks.

Financial shares gained for a second day. The group rallied yesterday, with Citigroup and JPMorgan rising at least 7.7 percent and the KBW Bank Index extending its gain since March 6 to 46 percent.

MetLife Inc. climbed 9.2 percent to $23.14 after Bank of America raised its recommendation on the biggest U.S. life insurer to "buy," saying in a report "we do not see the need for a large common stock offering."

Lincoln National Corp. fell 4.9 percent to $7.75. The insurer that reported its first loss in six years was cut to "underperform" from "neutral" at Bank of America.

Medicis, MGM

Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp. slumped 14 percent to $9.20. Regulators approved the sale of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s (TEVA US) generic version of Medicis's acne drug Solodyn.

MGM Mirage fell for a third day, sliding 6.8 percent to $2.83. The casino operator controlled by billionaire Kirk Kerkorian won a two-month reprieve from banks to come up with a debt restructure plan as auditors questioned the company's ability to stay in business.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for a fourth day, the longest winning streak since the start of the year, as the Bank of Japan said it will buy more bonds from banks to spur lending. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 0.9 percent.

The cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in February, led by gains in fuel, clothing and automobile prices.

The consumer price index rose 0.4 percent after a 0.3 percent increase in January, Labor Department figures showed. Excluding food and fuel, the so-called core rate climbed 0.2 percent for a second month.

To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net

Madoff Accountant Friehling Arrested in Ponzi Scheme

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- David Friehling, Bernard Madoff's accountant, was arrested and charged with securities fraud, the first accused accomplice to be named by authorities in connection with the money manager's $65 billion Ponzi scheme.

Friehling was sole proprietor of the Friehling & Horowitz accounting firm. The firm occupied a 550-square foot space in New City, a northern suburb of New York City in Rockland County, and served as auditor to Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities since 1991, prosecutors said.

Friehling, 49, is not accused of knowing about the scheme. Rather, he allegedly deceived investors by falsely certifying that he had audited the financial statements of Madoff's firm. Besides securities fraud, Friehling is charged with aiding and abetting investment advisor fraud and four counts of filing false audit reports with the SEC.

"Friehling failed to conduct audits that complied with GAAS and GAAP," Acting U.S. Attorney Lev Dassin said in a statement, referring to generally accepted accounting principles and standards. "He did little or no testing, no verification of the 'facts' he certified. His job was not merely to rubber-stamp statements he didn't verify."

Defense attorney Andrew Lankler declined to comment. Friehling, who faces a maximum 105 years in prison, will appear in Manhattan federal court later today after surrendering to authorities this morning.

Meaningful Audit

Prosecutors said that as far back at 1995, Friehling lacked "professional independence" from his client by having an account at Madoff Securities with a year-end net equity of more than the $500,000 maximum amount allowed under SEC rules.

Madoff, 70, pleaded guilty on March 12 to defrauding investors of as much as $65 billion and is jailed at the Metropolitan Correctional Center in Manhattan. He faces 150 years behind bars for using money from new investors to pay off old ones in a global fraud that ran from at least the early 1990s. Prosecutors are seeking to seize more than $100 million in assets from him and his wife, Ruth.

In a criminal complaint, Keith Kelly, an agent with the Federal Bureau of Investigation, said there's no indication that Friehling conducted a meaningful audit of Madoff Securities. He didn't review material sources of firm revenue, examine a bank account through which billions of dollars of client funds flowed, or verify assets, liabilities or purported stock purchases, Kelly said.

Enabler

Peter Henning, a law professor at Wayne State University in Detroit, said in an interview that Friehling's arrest signals the government will prosecute Madoff workers even if they weren't expressly aware of the fraud.

"The government is saying he was an enabler that allowed Madoff to keep up the façade that he was running a legitimate operation," Henning said. "They're saying the accountant could have blown the whistle if he did his job but he didn't. A good accountant would have stopped this earlier."

Separately, the Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil suit against Friehling and his firm in Manhattan federal court. The agency wants them to pay unspecified fines and forfeit "ill-gotten gains."

"Friehling essentially sold his license to Madoff for more than 17 years while Madoff's Ponzi scheme went undetected," said James Clarkson, acting director of the SEC's New York office, in a statement. "For all those years, Friehling deceived investors and regulators by declaring that Madoff's enterprise had a clean audit record."

Invested With Madoff

Friehling and his family members still had accounts at Madoff's firm with reported balances of more than $14 million as of Nov. 30, according to the SEC. They began investing with Madoff around 1980 and withdrew more than $5.5 million since 2000, the agency said.

Friehling was paid between $12,000 and $14,500 per month between 2004 and 2007, Kelly said. The SEC said he was paid $186,000 in annual fees.

Friehling at one time operated the Friehling & Horowitz firm with his father-in-law, Jerome Horowitz, a former outside accountant for Madoff who retired in the 1990s and moved to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.

Neil Friedman, a Madoff investor who lives in Palm City, Florida, said in an interview that Horowitz had been Madoff's accountant for decades and also lost money in the scam. Horowitz died on March 12, the same day as Madoff's guilty plea, according to Lankler.

The case is U.S. v. Friehling, 09-mag-729, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan).

To contact the reporters on this story: David Glovin in New York federal court at dglovin@bloomberg.net .

Book profit

Initiate short in united spirits
Infy
IOC

Economic Growth Forecast

India May Fail to Meet 7.1% Growth Forecast as Harvests Decline

March 18 (Bloomberg) -- India may fail to achieve the government's 7.1 percent economic growth forecast if crop harvests don't meet expectations, according to the finance ministry's top economist.

Agricultural output in Asia's third-largest economy fell 2.2 percent last quarter from a year earlier and the nation's farm ministry expects food-grain production in the year to June to decline by 1.3 percent to 227.9 million tons.

"To the extent that agriculture growth turns out to be below the 2.6 percent expectation" then our forecast for gross domestic product in the fiscal year ending March 31 would have to be adjusted, the finance ministry's Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Virmani said in an interview in New Delhi yesterday.

India's $1.2 trillion economy is faltering as the worst financial crisis to hit the global economy since the Great Depression saps demand for the nation's exports. Poor harvests may further weaken growth that is already at a six-year low.

Reduced farm production may "play a spoilsport," said Dharmakirti Joshi, an economist at Mumbai-based Crisil Ltd., the local unit of Standard & Poor's. "Lower agriculture output will imply lower GDP." Joshi expects GDP growth to be close to 6.5 percent in the year to March 31.

Wheat production in India, the world's biggest producer of the grain after China, will miss the official target this year after dry weather hurt crop prospects. Output may total 77.8 million metric tons, less than the 78.6 million ton target set by the government in September, according to the farm ministry.

Sugar, Cotton

Total oilseed output, which also includes monsoon-sown crop, may drop almost 13 percent and sugarcane production may decline 17 percent to 290.5 million tons. Cotton output may drop 14 percent to 22.2 million bales of 170 kilograms (375 pounds).

To boost farm production, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has subsidized fertilizers and announced record-high guaranteed prices to buy wheat, rice and other products. That may also help the government win support from rural voters in elections occurring in April and May.

Weaker external demand is also damping Indian economic growth. Exports dropped 16 percent to $12.38 billion in January from a year earlier, the fourth straight monthly fall, and industrial production posted its first back-to-back decline in 16 years.

"Traditionally, monetary policy is the first line of defense against demand shocks," Virmani said, indicating that the central bank may add to five interest rate cuts since October. "Monetary and fiscal policy responses will continue."

Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of India on March 4 reduced its key repurchase rate to an all-time low of 5 percent from 5.5 percent and the reverse repurchase rate to 3.5 percent from 4 percent. The bank has cut the repurchase rate by 400 basis points since October and the reverse repurchase rate by 250 basis points.

The central bank has been able to reduce borrowing costs as inflation eased from 12.91 percent in August to a six-year low of 2.43 percent in the week to Feb. 28.

"It won't be surprising if inflation comes down to low levels," Virmani said. "But any kind of talk of deflation over a substantial period of time is just not evident" from any historical data-based analysis. Any negative weekly numbers would not continue for a sustained period, he said.

While gains in India's benchmark wholesale-price index have slowed, other gauges of inflation that the central bank takes into account when deciding policy are at a decade high.

Consumer Prices

Inflation as measured by the consumer prices paid by industrial workers quickened to 10.45 percent in January, the highest since December 1998. This index takes into account prices for house rentals, toiletries, phones and school fees. The consumer-price index for farm workers increased 11.62 percent in January from a year earlier, following an 11.14 percent gain in December.

"Lower wholesale-price inflation is good but one should not be euphoric about it as long as consumer-price inflation is still running at above historic levels," Virmani said.

The government may need to extend fiscal stimulus plans in the year starting April 1 to support growth, Virmani said.

Prime Minister Singh's government has announced three stimulus packages since December. Initiatives have included tax cuts on consumer products and services and higher spending on roads, ports and utilities.

Acting Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Feb. 24 lowered excise duty to 8 percent from 10 percent and the service tax to 10 percent from 12 percent. He extended a 4 percentage point reduction in central value-added tax announced in December to beyond March 31.

India's economy grew 5.3 percent in the three months to Dec. 31, the weakest pace of expansion since the last quarter of 2003.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kartik Goyal in New Delhi at yal@bloomberg.net .