Mobius Says Bull Rally Has Begun as Emerging Markets Erase Loss

March 23 (Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.'s Mark Mobius said the next "bull-market" rally in developing- nation equities has begun as stocks surged from Shanghai to Moscow on the U.S. Treasury's plan to revive the banking system.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index climbed the most in more than two weeks, erasing losses for 2009, on U.S. plans to buy as much as $1 trillion of toxic assets. China's Shanghai Composite Index rose for a sixth day, the longest winning stretch in more than 17 months, as the government encouraged mergers in the auto and steel industries. Russia's Micex jumped 4.9 percent after Citigroup Inc. said the stocks are "dirt cheap."

"You have to be careful not to miss the opportunity," Mobius, who helps oversee about $20 billion of emerging-market assets as executive chairman at San Mateo, California-based Templeton, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television today. "With all the negative news, there is a tendency to hold back."

The 72-year old investor, voted among the "Top Ten Money Managers of the 20th Century" by the Carson Group, said there are bargains in every emerging market after the MSCI benchmark fell 57 percent from its October 2007 peak on concern the global economy will contract for the first time since World War II.

The global benchmark climbed 3.8 percent at 1:49 p.m. in London, putting the index on course for a 2009 gain for the first time since Jan. 9.

'Cash Rich' Bargains

Templeton is looking for companies that are "cash-rich," have low debt and higher dividend yields, or those that can invest for future growth yet have cash left to pay shareholders, Mobius said. He cited Hong Kong's Denway Motors Ltd., PTT Plc in Thailand, Indonesia's Bank Central Asia, ICICI Bank Ltd. in India, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Dairy Farm International Holdings Ltd. in Singapore.

Citigroup analysts Markus Rosgen and Elaine Chu are among strategists who said recent Asian stock gains are a temporary "bear-market rally" because valuations have yet to plumb the lows seen in past recessions. Tal Eloya of Fidelity Investments, the world's biggest mutual fund company, said today he's skeptical of predictions about the timing of the market cycle.

"No one can call the bottom in the stock market," Eloya, a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, said in a briefing in Seoul.

"You are going to see a lot of bouncing off the bottom because there's a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market," Mobius said. "But I have a feeling we're at the bottom and now we're building a base for the next bull market."

Mobius correctly predicted in December that emerging markets will rebound before developed nations. In 2006, he was named one of the "Top 100 Most Powerful and Influential People" by Asiamoney magazine.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at kchua6@bloomberg.net Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net .