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Monday, August 10, 2009

Sensitive Index Falls

Indian Stocks Fall on Monsoon Concerns; Mahindra Leads Declines

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks fell, led by Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., on concern shortfalls in agricultural production caused by this year's poor monsoon may slow the country's economic growth.

Mahindra & Mahindra, the largest maker of sport-utility vehicles and tractors, sank 9 percent after an adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said a below-average monsoon may shave as much as one percentage point off India's economic growth this year. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the maker of half the cars sold in India, lost 3.5 percent. ACC Ltd., India's biggest cement maker, plunged 6.9 percent.

"Investors are shifting from sectors dependent on rural income, like auto and fast-moving consumer goods, to sectors like exports as the global economy is on a recovery path," said Vaibhav Sanghavi, a director at Ambit Capital Ltd. in Mumbai, who manages funds for wealthy individuals.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 150.47, or 1 percent, to 15,009.77. The gauge swung between gains and losses at least 12 times. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange lost 1 percent to 4,437.65. The BSE 200 Index decreased 1.2 percent to 1,826.58.

India's monsoon rains, the main source of irrigation for the nation's 235 million farmers, may be the weakest in five years, threatening harvests of crops such as sugar cane and rice. A normal monsoon is key to Prime Minister Singh's efforts to push economic expansion back to a 9 percent pace and cool prices of essential commodities such as sugar and lentils.

Agriculture makes up about 20 percent of the Indian economy, according to IIFL Ltd. in Mumbai.

'Not Devastating'

Mahindra slid 9 percent to 760.1 rupees. Maruti declined 3.5 percent to 1,248.55 rupees. ACC retreated 6.9 percent to 809.9 rupees.

Hero Honda Motors Ltd., the biggest motorcycle maker, lost 3.6 percent to 1,425.4 rupees. Hindustan Unilever Ltd., the largest household products maker, declined 3.3 percent to 260.65 rupees.

South Asia's largest economy may now grow about 6 percent this fiscal year, said Raghuram Rajan, an adviser to the premier who is also a professor of finance at the University of Chicago and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

"The monsoon will have an effect, but not as devastating as it would have been in the past," Rajan said. "Now hopefully, it takes a fraction of a percentage point or a percentage point off growth, which still looks reasonably healthy."

India now aims to increase production of winter-sown crops to compensate for a possible shortfall in summer-sown rice, Singh said last week. The area under rice cultivation, the worst hit by delayed rains, has declined by 15 million acres, he said.

'Lower Demand'

"Among auto companies, Mahindra & Mahindra could see the biggest impact from lower demand for tractors," analysts Jairam Nathan and Amit Agarwal of Kotak Securities Ltd. said in a research note today. "Reduced rural income could also lead to demand declining for the company's utility vehicles. Close to 50 percent of utility-vehicle sales come from rural areas."

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the biggest software services exporter, rose 5.9 percent to 539.05 rupees after an unexpected decline in the U.S. jobless rate signaled the global recession may be easing. Wipro Ltd., the third-biggest software services provider, gained 2.7 percent to 513.25 rupees. Infosys Technologies Ltd., the second-largest software services provider, gained 2.4 percent to 2,087.7 rupees.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the deepest slump since the Great Depression may be ending. Indian software exporters earn more than half their revenue from the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rajhkumar K Shaaw in Mumbai at rshaaw@bloomberg.net

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Indian Stocks Fall on Monsoon Concerns; Mahindra Leads Declines

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks fell, led by Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., on concern shortfalls in agricultural production caused by this year's poor monsoon may slow the country's economic growth.

Mahindra & Mahindra, the largest maker of sport-utility vehicles and tractors, sank 9 percent after an adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said a below-average monsoon may shave as much as one percentage point off India's economic growth this year. Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the maker of half the cars sold in India, lost 3.5 percent. ACC Ltd., India's biggest cement maker, plunged 6.9 percent.

"Investors are shifting from sectors dependent on rural income, like auto and fast-moving consumer goods, to sectors like exports as the global economy is on a recovery path," said Vaibhav Sanghavi, a director at Ambit Capital Ltd. in Mumbai, who manages funds for wealthy individuals.

The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 150.47, or 1 percent, to 15,009.77. The gauge swung between gains and losses at least 12 times. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange lost 1 percent to 4,437.65. The BSE 200 Index decreased 1.2 percent to 1,826.58.

India's monsoon rains, the main source of irrigation for the nation's 235 million farmers, may be the weakest in five years, threatening harvests of crops such as sugar cane and rice. A normal monsoon is key to Prime Minister Singh's efforts to push economic expansion back to a 9 percent pace and cool prices of essential commodities such as sugar and lentils.

Agriculture makes up about 20 percent of the Indian economy, according to IIFL Ltd. in Mumbai.

'Not Devastating'

Mahindra slid 9 percent to 760.1 rupees. Maruti declined 3.5 percent to 1,248.55 rupees. ACC retreated 6.9 percent to 809.9 rupees.

Hero Honda Motors Ltd., the biggest motorcycle maker, lost 3.6 percent to 1,425.4 rupees. Hindustan Unilever Ltd., the largest household products maker, declined 3.3 percent to 260.65 rupees.

South Asia's largest economy may now grow about 6 percent this fiscal year, said Raghuram Rajan, an adviser to the premier who is also a professor of finance at the University of Chicago and a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund.

"The monsoon will have an effect, but not as devastating as it would have been in the past," Rajan said. "Now hopefully, it takes a fraction of a percentage point or a percentage point off growth, which still looks reasonably healthy."

India now aims to increase production of winter-sown crops to compensate for a possible shortfall in summer-sown rice, Singh said last week. The area under rice cultivation, the worst hit by delayed rains, has declined by 15 million acres, he said.

'Lower Demand'

"Among auto companies, Mahindra & Mahindra could see the biggest impact from lower demand for tractors," analysts Jairam Nathan and Amit Agarwal of Kotak Securities Ltd. said in a research note today. "Reduced rural income could also lead to demand declining for the company's utility vehicles. Close to 50 percent of utility-vehicle sales come from rural areas."

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the biggest software services exporter, rose 5.9 percent to 539.05 rupees after an unexpected decline in the U.S. jobless rate signaled the global recession may be easing. Wipro Ltd., the third-biggest software services provider, gained 2.7 percent to 513.25 rupees. Infosys Technologies Ltd., the second-largest software services provider, gained 2.4 percent to 2,087.7 rupees.

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said the deepest slump since the Great Depression may be ending. Indian software exporters earn more than half their revenue from the U.S.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rajhkumar K Shaaw in Mumbai at rshaaw@bloomberg.net







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