Aug. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asia's stock-market rally may falter as chart formations show the gains lack "technical strength," said Elliott Wave International Inc.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has climbed in five waves from lows in March, indicating that the rebound is only the first leg of a larger "bear-market rally," Elliott Wave International said. The index's peak volume and momentum in the smaller wave that started mid-July was lower than that of an earlier advance, another indication that prices may "correct," it added.
The MSCI regional index has risen every day, except one, since July 13, advancing by 15 percent. The rally helped the measure climb 8.4 percent in July, its fifth straight month of gains, on optimism the worst of the global recession has past.
"This fifth wave has been impressive, logging a rare 11 up days in a row before stalling on July 29," Elliott Wave International said in its Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. "As impressive as that price performance was, it lacked underlying technical strength."
The MSCI index has been gaining in the past three weeks under the so-called trend channel that contained most of the advance since March, Elliott Wave International said. The index reached the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the decline between 2007 and 2009 at the 110 level, the report said. Further gains mean the index could peak near 123, the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level, the research company said.
Elliott Wave Theory, created by U.S. market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
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